10月央行各项工具流动性投放情况点评：央行重启国债买卖，信号意义远重于操作规模

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy signal significance of the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is significantly greater than the actual operation scale. The small - scale purchase in October 2025 is a specific implementation of the policy declaration, aiming to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and guide the market to form stable expectations [4][8]. - The central bank may moderately increase the scale of treasury bond purchases in November 2025. It is expected that the net purchase scale in the fourth quarter of 2025 will reach 2000 - 4000 billion yuan, mainly focusing on short - term treasury bonds [4][9]. - In 2026, the scale of treasury bond trading operations may significantly expand following the rhythm of fiscal stimulus. If the front - loaded fiscal stimulus in 2025 continues, large - scale operations may be carried out in the first quarter of 2026 [4][12]. - Treasury bond trading operations are expected to become a new channel for medium - and long - term liquidity injection, which can optimize the bank's asset structure, replace MLF and repo, and relieve the pressure on traditional liquidity injection tools [4][18][19]. - The bond market is expected to be in a volatile and bullish situation in November. Investors should focus on the asset allocation window of traditional institutions at the end of the year and prioritize investing in medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds [32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 Signal Significance Far重于Operation Scale - In October 2025, the central bank restarted treasury bond purchases with a scale of 20 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the average level in the same period of 2024. The market had an expected gap, and the policy signal is more important than the liquidity injection effect [4][8]. - The small - scale purchase operation indicates that the central bank does not intend to drive interest rates down too quickly and avoid excessive market expectations. The pressure of treasury bond issuance in November 2025 has marginally eased, and the urgency of large - scale purchases is not high [4][8]. - It is expected that the central bank will continue treasury bond trading operations in November, and the net purchase scale in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to reach 2000 - 4000 billion yuan, mainly buying short - term treasury bonds [4][9]. 1.2 Restart of Treasury Bond Trading Operations: Considerations Based on Environmental Improvement and Policy Coordination - The restart of treasury bond trading operations is based on the improvement of internal and external environments and policy coordination. The previous suspension was a temporary and prudent measure, and the restart is reasonable and necessary [13]. - Internally, the supply - demand of the bond market is balanced, and the systemic risks have been released. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has returned to a reasonable range of 1.75% - 1.80%, creating favorable conditions for the restart [13]. - Externally, the exchange - rate pressure has significantly eased. The offshore RMB exchange rate has stabilized at around 7.10, which broadens the space for monetary policy operations [14]. - From the perspective of policy coordination, the restart of operations is a cooperation with the Ministry of Finance's bond - issuing work, which is an important manifestation of the coordinated efforts of fiscal and financial policies [16]. 1.3 Treasury Bond Trading Operations are Expected to Become a New Channel for Medium - and Long - Term Liquidity Injection - In the structural liquidity shortage framework, the bank system has a natural gap in medium - and long - term liquidity. Traditional liquidity injection tools face constraints such as limited reserve - requirement ratio reduction space and large - scale rolling renewals [18]. - Treasury bond trading operations can convert commercial banks' bond assets into excess reserves, optimize the asset structure, and replace MLF and repo to a certain extent, which is similar to the effect of "reserve - requirement ratio reduction" [19]. 2.1 Impact of Treasury Bond Trading Operations on the Central Bank's Balance Sheet - Bond borrowing is an off - balance - sheet business, and its scale is not directly reflected in the central bank's balance sheet [23]. - Bond borrowing and selling lead to a structural adjustment of the liability side. When the central bank borrows and sells bonds, the excess deposit reserves on the liability side decrease, and the trading - related financial liabilities increase [23]. - Buying treasury bonds on the balance sheet has a clear expansion effect on the central bank's balance sheet, increasing both the "claims on the government" on the asset side and the "deposits of other depository corporations" on the liability side [25]. - Holding treasury bonds to maturity leads to a contraction of the balance sheet, as the "claims on the government" and "government deposits" decrease [26]. 2.2 Review of Treasury Bond Trading Operations - In August 2024, the central bank started treasury bond trading operations, implementing a "buy - short, sell - long" strategy, with a net purchase of 100 billion yuan [27]. - From September to December 2024, the strategy changed to mainly "buying short", with a cumulative net purchase of about 900 billion yuan [27]. - In January 2025, the central bank suspended treasury bond trading operations, and the "claims on the government" on the balance sheet gradually decreased as the short - term treasury bonds matured [27]. 3. Bond Market Strategy: Prioritize Investing in Medium - and Long - Term Interest - Rate Bonds - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish in November. The restart of treasury bond trading in October sent a positive signal, but it may not drive yields down trend - wise. Investors should focus on the asset allocation window of traditional institutions [32]. - Investors should prioritize investing in medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds. The 30Y - 10Y spread is at a near - three - year high, and there is a high probability of narrowing. Configuration - oriented institutions may increase their allocation of medium - and long - term bonds [32].