瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The international sugar market has a bearish fundamental outlook, with a significant global supply surplus expected in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.43 cents, or 2.90%, to settle at 14.22 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the forecasted arrival of out - of - tariff - quota raw sugar in October is 17.45 tons, with the import volume expected to decrease month - on - month. Affected by news related to syrups and premixes, there is support at lower levels. However, the loose supply - demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, and sugar prices are expected to remain at low levels in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 367,492 lots, down 1330 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7422, down 10; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 53,717 lots, down 3869 lots. The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar is 1586 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4057 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4122 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5139 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5225 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Nanning is 5700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 5720 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 44.98 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons. The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, down 280,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 324.58 million tons, down 49.82 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1502 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1437 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 420 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 334 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 6.74%, down 0.78%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 6.75%, down 0.57%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.56%, up 0.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.82%, down 0.01% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 16% to 34.35 million tons, mainly driven by increased production in Maharashtra. The net sugar production this year is expected to be 30.95 million tons, higher than 26.1 million tons in the previous season [2]