铁铁铁铁铁2025、10、31：僵持的锰矿价格

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon in the report are generally neutral, with the inventory of both being rated as weak and the cost - profit being rated as strong [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints Manganese - silicon - The futures market fluctuated upwards this week. Weekly production increased slightly, and demand recovered. At the end of the month, warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation, and attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery. The spot market quotations were few. The price in the northern market was 5600 - 5660 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5650 - 5650 yuan/ton. A large steel mill in Hebei tendered at 5820 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market was firm and rising, and the cost of alloys was under pressure, with poor profit margins [3] Ferrosilicon - The futures market fluctuated upwards this week. Market sentiment was average, with most adopting a cautious approach. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5200 - 5200 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the price at 5660 yuan/ton, and Shagang at 5700 yuan/ton. Production decreased slightly, while demand continued to increase slightly, and the production of magnesium metal increased slightly. The current profitability in the main production areas was poor, and the cost did not change significantly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore was 442.7 million tons, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. Tianjin Port's inventory increased to 386.4 million tons, still lower than the same period last year, and Qinzhou Port's inventory decreased to 55.8 million tons, also lower than last year [14] - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore decreased to 265.2 million tons, the inventory of Gabonese ore increased significantly to 34.8 million tons (far lower than last year), and the inventory of Australian ore increased significantly to 52.9 million tons (higher than last year) [19] Price - The price of Gabonese lumps at Tianjin Port was 39.8 yuan/ton degree, Australian lumps were 39 yuan/ton degree, and South African semi - carbonate was 34.2 yuan/ton degree. UMK announced the price of semi - carbonate in the northern market for November at 4.1 US dollars/ton degree, which was consistent with the transaction price in the southern market. Market sentiment for receiving goods was positive [22] Manganese - silicon Production - As of October 31, the weekly production of manganese - silicon increased to 20.77 million tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia decreased to 13,950 tons/day, that in Ningxia increased to 6,785 tons/day, that in Yunnan remained at 2,290 tons/day, and that in Guizhou decreased slightly to 2,200 tons/day [32] Demand - As of October 31, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 124,500 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 8.7529 million tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased slightly, slightly lower than the historical average [40] Price - The price in the Inner Mongolia market was around 5680 yuan/ton, and in the Tianjin area, it was 5720 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group tendered at 5820 yuan/ton [47] Cost and Profit - The price of chemical coke was stable. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, and the profit of alloys was poor. The spot price of manganese ore was firm, and downstream procurement was cautious. Due to the delay in foreign pricing, the sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices for semi - carbonate increased, and the transaction price increased by about 0.2 yuan/ton degree [3] Month - to - Month Spread - As of October 30, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of manganese - silicon was - 48 yuan/ton, continuing to fluctuate at a low level [59] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures market fluctuated upwards, and the basis strengthened slightly. As of October 30, the total of manganese - silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 60,600 tons. Warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation in October, and attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [63] Ferrosilicon Production - As of October 31, the weekly production was 113,200 tons, a slight decrease compared to the previous period. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5,160 tons, in Qinghai was 2,345 tons, in Ningxia was 4,250 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2,610 tons [68] Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon from steel mills continued to recover. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 20,300 tons, slightly lower than the same period last year. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly [72][82] Export - As of October 30, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 1105 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 - grade was 1055 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. In September, the import volume increased slightly, and the export volume increased significantly, higher than the same period last year [87] Raw Materials - As of October 30, the prices of small - sized blue charcoal in major regions increased slightly. The prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were 750 yuan/ton, 810 yuan/ton, and 800 yuan/ton respectively. The price of iron oxide scale increased to 750 yuan/ton [99] Cost and Profit - As of October 30, the on - the - spot profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. The loss in Shaanxi was relatively large, and that in Qinghai was relatively small. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai were - 378 yuan/ton, - 359 yuan/ton, - 463 yuan/ton, and - 147 yuan/ton respectively [106] Month - to - Month Spread - As of October 30, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of ferrosilicon was - 98 yuan/ton, weakening slightly compared to the previous period [112] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures market fluctuated upwards, and the basis of ferrosilicon weakened slightly. As of October 30, the basis was - 300 yuan/ton. The total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 37,500 tons. Attention should be paid to the recovery of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation in October [116] Balance Sheet Manganese - silicon - From June 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of manganese - silicon showed different trends. There were periods of surplus and shortage. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [118] Ferrosilicon - From June 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of ferrosilicon also showed different trends. There were periods of surplus and shortage. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [119]