多元资产月报（2025年11月）：外部经贸局势缓和，关注季报业绩指引-20251105

Macro Economic Background - The domestic economy is showing stable performance with a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters, which is an acceleration compared to the previous year [12] - In September, the industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, significantly up by 1.3 percentage points from August, with high-tech industries growing by 10.3% [12] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% from January to September, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all experiencing a slowdown [12] - Retail sales in September grew by 3.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but certain categories like furniture and sports equipment maintained double-digit growth [12] - Exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in September, supported by high-tech and electromechanical products [12][15] A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a "first decline then rise" trend in October, with a shift from small-cap growth stocks to large-cap dividend stocks [9] - The outlook for November indicates a clearer mainline consensus in the A-share market, with potential improvements in the capital game structure [9] - The performance of the third-quarter reports is expected to validate the upward trend in the A-share market, particularly led by technology growth [9] Fixed Income Market - In October, the bond market saw a downward trend in interest rates influenced by multiple factors, including the resumption of government bond trading [9] - The outlook for November suggests a bullish trading strategy with a focus on basic data and stock market changes [9] Currency Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern, influenced by the potential for a decline in interest rate expectations [9] - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate moderately in the short term due to several favorable factors, including a weak dollar index and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [9] Offshore Markets - US Treasury yields are expected to rise slightly in the short term, while the US stock market is supported by strong earnings and seasonal factors [9] - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to see an increase in risk appetite due to improved external conditions and internal policy adjustments, with a focus on quarterly performance [9] Commodities - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a long-term upward trend still favored [9] - Oil prices are projected to fluctuate weakly, supported by demand for heating oil during the winter season and a reduction in US commercial crude oil inventories [9]