海外策略笔记：流动性的“危”，买入的“机”

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 10% [23]. Core Insights - The essence of the recent decline in various assets is attributed to liquidity contraction, with significant pullbacks observed in major indices and commodities [1]. - The liquidity gap caused by the U.S. government shutdown is estimated to be between $150 billion to $180 billion, with a projected annualized liquidity shortfall of $1.85 trillion for the private sector [2][14]. - There is optimism regarding a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown within a short timeframe, with expectations of bipartisan agreement [3]. - The current market pullback in U.S. equities is viewed as a buying opportunity, with the S&P 500's reasonable valuation center estimated between 6900-6950, indicating no significant valuation burden [4]. - Hong Kong stocks are in a valuation digestion phase, but the high certainty of interest rate cuts is expected to limit downside potential, presenting a good opportunity for investment [5]. - The report highlights a combination of liquidity challenges and favorable fundamentals, recommending sectors such as semiconductors and materials for investment [6]. Summary by Sections - Liquidity Issues: The U.S. government shutdown is causing a significant liquidity gap, with a weekly absorption of $35.5 billion from the market [2]. - Market Outlook: The report suggests that the current market conditions, particularly in U.S. equities, present a favorable environment for investment, despite recent declines [4]. - Sector Recommendations: Focus on semiconductors and materials, particularly in the context of liquidity recovery and strong demand for industrial metals [6].