瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The new cotton cost is fixed, which supports the cotton price. However, the supply exerts pressure on the upside. It is expected that the cotton price will mainly fluctuate weakly. The downstream demand has not fully started, orders are less than expected, and as the demand gradually enters the off - season, the market lacks confidence in the later - stage demand. Cotton textile enterprises mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude and replenish inventory based on rigid needs [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,820 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 109,416 lots, down 289 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 160 lots, down 71 lots. Cotton main contract positions are 580,691 lots, up 12,864 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions are 25,021 lots, up 173 lots. Cotton warehouse receipts are 2,752 sheets, up 182 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 6 sheets, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,263 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,142 yuan/ton. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,228 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,579 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B) is 5,695 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons. The import volume of cotton this month is 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; the import volume of cotton yarn this month is 130,000 tons, unchanged. The profit of imported cotton is 699 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 25.24 days, up 0.39 days; the坯布 inventory days are 31.43 days, up 0.31 days. The cloth output this month is 2.811 billion meters, up 0.11 billion meters; the yarn output this month is 2.0738 million tons, up 45,900 tons. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories this month is 12,453.247 million US dollars, down 1,692.657 million US dollars; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products this month is 11,966.516 million US dollars, down 426.686 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 5.56%, down 2.23%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 5.5%, down 2.57%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.78%, up 0.07%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.77%, up 0.05% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The China Climate Center predicts that in November, the temperature in most cotton - growing areas in the northwestern inland, the Yellow River Basin, and the Yangtze River Basin will be close to or higher than normal, with less precipitation, which is conducive to cotton maturity and picking and drying. However, the slightly more precipitation in northern Xinjiang will have a certain adverse impact on cotton drying. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures declined on Tuesday, pressured by the stronger US dollar. The ICE December cotton futures contract closed down 0.48 cents, or 0.70%, at 65.20 cents per pound [2] 3.8 View Summary - In the domestic market, on the supply side, the cotton picking and purchasing progress in Xinjiang is accelerating. In northern Xinjiang, cotton picking is in the later stage, while in southern Xinjiang, it is still in the large - scale picking stage. Due to the drought and high - temperature in some areas in southern Xinjiang, the yield per unit of seed cotton is lower than expected, and the purchasing price continues to rise. On the demand side, the downstream demand has not fully started, orders are less than expected. As the demand gradually enters the off - season, the market lacks confidence in the later - stage demand, and cotton textile enterprises mostly wait and see, mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid needs [2]