镍月报：镍市指引有限，价格区间震荡-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The nickel market has limited guidance and prices will oscillate within a range. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown may lead to the absence of multiple data such as employment and inflation, and market sentiment is conservatively expected. With the Fed's balance - sheet reduction driving, the dollar liquidity tightens. The new Japanese prime minister advocates a loose fiscal path, and combined with the European political turmoil, the US dollar index is still expected to rise, so the macro - level may have no driving force for price increases. Industrially, the rainy season in the Philippines will disrupt nickel ore mining and shipping, the supply of nickel ore is expected to tighten marginally, and the ore price may remain high, strengthening the cost bottom support. Terminal demand is more polarized. The new energy market may remain strong within the month, with an incremental demand for nickel. The real - estate market is sluggish, and stainless - steel production is nearly flat. The supply side may remain at a high level with the addition of new production capacity, and the fundamentals have no obvious improvement [4][45]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In October, the macro - narrative was changeable, and the main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated. At the beginning of the month, the LME nickel price continued to rise, while the domestic market was closed for the holiday. After the holiday, the price rose sharply to make up for the gap and then retreated under the pressure of the upper - limit of the range. After the middle of the month, the market focused on Sino - US relations and the Fed's interest - rate cut. As Sino - US relations improved and the Fed's interest - rate cut in October became more certain, the nickel price was pushed up. However, after the interest - rate cut was implemented and multiple trade sanctions were suspended, the price dropped significantly [9]. - The spot premium was strong. In October, the premium of refined nickel showed a divergence. The premium of Jinchuan nickel rose from 2,450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,550 yuan/ton at the end of the month, while the premium of imported nickel dropped from 500 yuan/ton to 450 yuan/ton. During the reporting period, the nickel price oscillation drove the premium to fluctuate. At the end of the month, as the nickel price continued to consolidate at the bottom, the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased significantly [10]. 2. Macro - analysis Overseas - The Fed continued the interest - rate cut path in October, with a 25 - basis - point reduction in the federal funds rate, which met market expectations. However, there were internal differences within the Fed. Dove - camp representative Milan thought the Fed should cut the interest rate by 50 basis points, while Fed Chairman Powell unexpectedly turned hawkish, believing that it was not necessary to cut the interest rate in December. After his speech, the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut dropped to 67%. In early November, multiple Fed officials spoke, and most of them believed that more data were needed to determine the policy direction [14]. - US economic data were mixed. In September, the unadjusted CPI and core CPI were both lower than expected, which initially increased the expectation of a December interest - rate cut but then decreased after Powell's hawkish speech. The US manufacturing PMI in October weakened, remaining in the contraction range for 8 consecutive months. Although the demand and employment sub - indices improved, the output sub - index dropped significantly [15]. - As of November 5, the US government shutdown had lasted for 36 days, setting a new record. The government shutdown may cause a loss of 7 - 14 billion US dollars and reduce the Q4 GDP growth rate by 1 - 2 percentage points. It also had a negative impact on people's livelihoods and may lead to the closure of the US aviation system [16]. Domestic - In September, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic social consumer goods retail sales decreased. The growth rate of household appliance consumption slowed down significantly, mainly because the national subsidy funds became tight. The retail sales of automobiles and catering also decreased slightly. Overall, the withdrawal of national subsidy policies dragged down domestic consumption, and domestic demand was in need of a boost [17]. - In October, the domestic manufacturing PMI decreased and remained below the boom - bust line for 7 consecutive months. The demand and supply sub - indices both declined. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the export order index is expected to rise in November. The employment index was relatively stable, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Overall, the domestic manufacturing industry was still weak, and the industry's prosperity may not improve significantly [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Nickel Ore Supply Expected to Shrink, Cost Support Strengthened - In October, the FOB price of Indonesian (1.5%) laterite nickel ore increased slightly, and the FOB price of Philippine 1.5% - grade nickel ore also rose. The rainy season in the Philippines affected nickel ore mining and shipping, leading to a marginal tightening of supply. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore was stable, and the domestic benchmark price increased slightly. In September, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly year - on - year, with most coming from the Philippines. By the end of October, domestic port inventories increased significantly [19][21]. New Production Capacity Put into Operation, Supply Pressure Continued - In October, China's refined nickel production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The profit margins of some processes improved, driving the production enthusiasm of the upstream. In September, China's imports of refined nickel increased significantly year - on - year, mainly from Russia. The import loss at the end of October was slightly larger than the previous period. In September, domestic refined nickel exports also increased year - on - year [23][24]. Poor Stainless - steel Production Scheduling, Nickel - iron Profits Under Pressure - In October, the price of high - nickel pig iron declined. China's nickel - iron production increased month - on - month, and Indonesia's production increased slightly. Due to the sluggish real - estate industry, the production scheduling of 300 - series stainless steel was poor, and the demand for nickel - iron was weak. The cost of nickel - iron plants was high, and the profit margins decreased significantly. In November, the production scheduling of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia changed little. As of the end of October, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased. In September, China's imports of nickel - iron increased significantly year - on - year, mainly from Indonesia, while stainless - steel imports increased slightly and exports decreased [26][29]. Strong Demand from Power Terminals, Good Fundamentals of Nickel Sulfate - In October, the price of nickel sulfate increased. The production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The growth rate of ternary material production was stronger than that of nickel sulfate, which supported the price. The profit margins of some processes of producing nickel sulfate increased. In September, China's imports of nickel sulfate increased year - on - year, and exports decreased slightly [34][35]. Policy Window Period Still Exists, Medium - term Weakening Expected - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China increased year - on - year, with a balanced production - sales ratio. The production and sales of new - energy commercial vehicles continued to be popular. The export of new - energy passenger vehicles increased significantly year - on - year. In August, the sales of new - energy vehicles in Europe increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and the sales in the US increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the later stage, the sales of new - energy vehicles may remain strong during the policy window period, but the demand may decline as November ends. The main reasons are the new - car replacement policy and the change in the purchase - tax exemption policy. There are also potential risks caused by the long delivery cycle of new - energy vehicle manufacturers [37][40]. Significant Inventory Accumulation in Domestic and Overseas Exchanges, Spot Flowing to Warehouse Receipts - As of October 31, the domestic refined nickel social inventory increased significantly, while the refinery inventory decreased slightly, and the bonded - area inventory dropped. As of November 4, the SHFE and LME inventories increased significantly. Overall, the inventory in exchanges increased much more than the domestic social inventory. Due to the long - term range - bound nickel price and the excess supply, more resources may flow to the exchanges, and this trend may continue [41]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: New production capacity will continue to ramp up, and supply may increase slightly (Neutral to bearish). - Demand: There is an incremental expectation for the power terminal, while the traditional industries will continue to be at the bottom (Neutral to bullish). - Cost: The supply of Philippine nickel ore will tighten, and the ore price will remain high (Supportive). - Macro - level: The absence of economic data will lead to conservative market sentiment (Neutral). - In the future, the nickel market has limited guidance, and prices will oscillate within a range. The macro - level may not provide driving force for price increases, while on the industrial side, the cost support is strengthened, terminal demand is polarized, and the supply may remain high. There is no clear guidance for the nickel market this month, and prices may continue to oscillate within a range [45].