Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy faces opposition from the mining association due to increased production costs, and its implementation time may be postponed with uncertainties. The US biodiesel policy remains unclear, and the policy has cooled recently. International oil prices are running weakly at a low level due to eased geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production increase expectations [4][47] - The October MPOB report shows that the inventory increased more than expected due to a significant decline in domestic consumption in Malaysia. High - frequency data in October indicates that production maintains an upward trend, and export demand shows signs of weakening. The ending inventory is expected to increase to 2.44 million tons. Indonesia's September production was remarkable, with an expected annual production increase of 10%, and the origin quotes are generally lowered, with supply becoming more relaxed. India's October palm oil imports declined, verifying the weakening export demand at the origin, but there is still potential rigid import demand. There were many palm oil purchases for the October - November shipping period. Currently, domestic inventory is at a low level, and with more arrivals later, inventory is expected to increase, and recent transactions have increased [4][47] - The ongoing US government shutdown has led to a US dollar liquidity crisis, and the US dollar index is oscillating strongly. If the shutdown ends, attention should be paid to the guidance of economic data such as employment on the interest - rate cut path. The high - level Sino - US meeting at the end of October sent a positive signal to stabilize the global economy. Fundamentally, the expectation of loose supply and demand is strengthened, and oils and fats continue to run weakly. Waiting for the November MPOB report to be released. From November to March of the next year, the origin enters the production - reduction season, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. As the bearish sentiment of the biodiesel policy is gradually digested, the Indonesian B50 theme may still be hyped, which may support the market. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate weakly in the short term, and in the medium - to - long term (November), after the price stops falling and stabilizes, it will enter a low - level oscillation [4][48] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - Since October, the oils and fats sector has continued to weaken after a post - holiday high opening. In the domestic market, at the end of October, the palm oil 01 contract fell 464 to close at 8828 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.03%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 12 to close at 8128 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.15%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 622 to close at 9422 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.19%. In the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 170 to close at 4205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 3.89%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.82 to close at 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 1.66%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 34 to close at 639.2 Canadian dollars/ton, a rise of 5.63%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 360 to 8700 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.97%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong rose 20 to 8320 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.24%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell 500 to 9750 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.88% [9] - After the National Day in October, palm oil opened high and then continued to weaken. The high opening was due to the continuous rise of the foreign market during the holiday and the post - holiday make - up increase. The MPOB report released in October showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased more than the market expected, mainly because domestic consumption declined significantly. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil production maintained an upward trend, and export volume showed a weakening trend. It was expected that the inventory at the end of October would increase significantly, and the expectation of loose supply suppressed the price. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10%, and the September production was remarkable. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy was opposed by the mining industry, and due to factors such as capital constraints, the implementation time of B50 originally planned for 2026 will be postponed, and the hype sentiment of the theme has cooled. Coupled with the weak oscillation of international oil prices and the weak sentiment in the commodity market in October, palm oil oscillated weakly [10] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - Malaysia's September palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%; imports were 78,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.95%; the ending inventory at the end of September increased to 2.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%; domestic consumption was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.53%. The inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, and the report was generally neutral to bearish [21] 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From October 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 4.50% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.20% month - on - month, and production increased by 5.55% month - on - month. From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was estimated to increase by 10.77%, with production in the Malay Peninsula increasing by 4.54%, Sabah by 21.99%, Sarawak by 16.69%, and Borneo by 20.45% [24] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,639,089 tons, a 5.19% increase compared with the same period last month. According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,501,945 tons, a 4.31% month - on - month increase. According to SGS data, it was estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,282,036 tons, a 26.54% increase compared with the same period last month [24] 2.3 Indonesia Situation - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.54 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the production was 4.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.16 million tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's total palm oil production was 39.04 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 3.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the exports were 2.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's cumulative palm oil exports were 22.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.01 million tons [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's domestic palm oil consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the consumption was 2.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's cumulative domestic palm oil consumption was 16.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory was 2.54 million tons, compared with 2.57 million tons last month and 2.45 million tons in the same period last year [30] 2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In September 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.605 million tons, compared with 1.62 million tons in August and 1.06 million tons in September 2024. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative vegetable oil imports were 13.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 550,000 tons [33] - In September 2025, India's palm oil imports were 830,000 tons, compared with 991,000 tons last month and 527,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative palm oil imports were 6.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons [34] - In September 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 503,000 tons, compared with 368,000 tons last month and 384,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 4.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.29 million tons [34] - In September 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 272,000 tons, compared with 257,000 tons last month and 153,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 2.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 650,000 tons [34] 2.5 China's Oil Imports - In September 2025, China's palm oil imports were 150,000 tons, compared with 340,000 tons last month and 220,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 1.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [39] - In September 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 157,000 tons, compared with 138,000 tons last month and 146,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.604 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 294,000 tons [39] - In September 2025, China's sunflower oil imports were 38,000 tons, compared with 20,000 tons last month and 104,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 375,000 tons, compared with 933,000 tons in the same period last year [39] - In September 2025, the total imports of the above three major oils were 345,000 tons, compared with 498,000 tons in August. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imports of the three major oils were 3.729 million tons, compared with 4.313 million tons in the same period last year [39][42] 2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3246 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 306,600 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 83,300 tons compared with the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 87,400 tons compared with the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 135,900 tons compared with the same period last year [44] 3. Summary and Outlook - The content is consistent with the core views, including the situation of biodiesel policies, production and demand, and macro - aspects, and the outlook for palm oil prices in the short and medium - to - long term [47][48]
供应趋于宽松，棕榈油持续走弱
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-11-05 09:03