Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the total position of public funds in stock index futures continued to reach a new high since 2015, with the increase mainly from short - position increases. The slowdown of long - position increases and concentration in the IH contract, along with short - position increases in the IM contract, indicate that public funds are more optimistic about large - cap indices. The increase in the proportion of long positions in quarterly contracts may be related to the high historical basis in the futures market. Different types of funds show varying participation in terms of quantity and market value, and the top ten managers' total positions have increased [2][42]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Overall Situation - Significant Growth in Stock Index Futures Position Market Value - As of the end of Q3 2025, public funds held 32,496 lots of stock index futures, a 7.97% increase quarter - on - quarter, with the growth mainly from short - position increases. Long positions were 26,017 lots (up 3.38% QoQ), and short positions were 6,479 lots (up 31.42% QoQ). The total position market value was 43.58 billion yuan, a 28.63% increase QoQ, with long - position market value at 34.25 billion yuan (up 22.15% QoQ) and short - position market value at 9.327 billion yuan (up 59.76% QoQ) [6]. - The net long position was 19,538 lots, a decrease of 699 lots from the previous quarter, but the net long - position market value increased by 9.7 billion yuan to 34.25 billion yuan [6]. - 61 public fund companies participated in stock index futures, 5 fewer than the previous quarter, while the number of participating products increased by 22 to 440. There were 57 long - position companies, 24 short - position companies, 374 long - position products, and 67 short - position products. The number of long - position products has been increasing for 6 consecutive quarters [7][10]. Position Variety and Month Analysis 2.1 Position Variety Indicates Public Funds Are More Optimistic about Large - Cap Indices in the Future - This quarter, public funds' positions in various varieties were divergent. Long - position increases slowed down and were mainly concentrated in the IH contract, with an increase of 1,160 lots (26.6% QoQ) and 1.43 billion yuan (40.82% QoQ). Short - position increases were mainly in the IM contract, with an increase of 1,725 lots (76.9% QoQ) and 3.11 billion yuan (111.1% QoQ). The short - position main variety continued to shift from IF to IM, and the proportion of IM in short - hedge increased from 48.4% to 63.38%. This shows that public funds are more optimistic about large - cap indices [11]. - For different contracts: IF total position was 11,918 lots, with long positions of 10,260 lots (down 5.21% QoQ) and short positions of 1,658 lots (down 5.58% QoQ); IH position was 5,749 lots, with long positions of 5,514 lots (up 26.64% QoQ) and short positions of 235 lots (down 9.96% QoQ); IC position was 6,904 lots, with long positions of 6,287 lots (up 3.09% QoQ) and short positions of 617 lots (down 7.77% QoQ); IM position was 7,925 lots, with long positions of 3,956 lots (up 1.67% QoQ) and short positions of 3,969 lots (up 76.9% QoQ) [17]. 2.2 The Proportion of Long Positions in Quarterly Contracts Continued to Increase Significantly - This quarter, the proportion of public funds' long positions in quarterly contracts increased significantly and reached a historical high, while the proportion in current - month contracts continued to decline. This may be related to the high historical basis in the futures market, as quarterly contracts have higher and more stable basis than current - month contracts. Specifically, the proportions of long positions in current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 14.41%, 0.66%, 78.36%, and 6.57% respectively, with changes of - 12.7, - 0.86, 17.96, and - 4.42 percentage points QoQ. The proportions of short positions were 33.36%, 1.53%, 58.95%, and 6.15% respectively, with changes of - 11.2, 1.31, 6.47, and 3.43 percentage points QoQ [18]. Position Situation of Various Fund Products 3.1 Significant Increase in the Number of Index - Enhanced Products - The total number of public fund products participating in stock index futures increased by 22 to 440. The number of index - enhanced and flexible - allocation products increased the most, from 120 and 36 to 131 and 43 respectively, while the number of partial - stock hybrid products decreased from 49 to 42 [20]. - In terms of total participation market value, passive index products were the main participants in long positions of public funds' stock index futures, followed by index - enhanced products. The long - position market values of passive index and index - enhanced products increased significantly, and the short - position market value of flexible - allocation products increased significantly, from 24.277 billion, 2.692 billion, and 0.965 billion yuan to 29.499 billion, 3.265 billion, and 3.695 billion yuan respectively. Partial - stock hybrid, flexible - allocation, and neutral products were the main participants in short positions, different from the previous quarter when it was mainly neutral products, indicating that public funds are more cautious about the short - term market and the active hedging momentum has increased [21]. 3.2 Significant Increase in Short Positions of Flexible - Allocation Products in IM - For long - position products, passive index products increased their long positions in all four major futures contracts. Index - enhanced products also significantly increased their positions in IC and IM due to the high historical basis. - For short - position products, in addition to traditional neutral products still having a large proportion of positions in IF, flexible - allocation products significantly increased their short positions in IM from 0.763 billion yuan to 3.46 billion yuan. Partial - stock hybrid products maintained a short - position of about 1.8 billion yuan in IM, with a slight increase from the previous quarter. This shows that public funds are more cautious about small - and medium - cap indices in the later period [34][35]. The Total Position of the Top Ten Managers Continued to Increase - This quarter, the total position of the top ten managers reached 28,153 lots, with a total position market value of 37.447 billion yuan, increasing by 10.78% and 31.86% respectively quarter - on - quarter. China Europe Fund significantly increased its short positions by more than 2,700 lots, and Harvest Fund increased its long positions by 1,200 lots. Specifically, the long positions of the top ten managers were 22,654 lots (up 4.21% QoQ) with a market value of 29.425 billion yuan (up 22.49% QoQ), and the short positions were 5,499 lots (up 49.6% QoQ) with a market value of 8.05 billion yuan (up 83.12% QoQ) [36][37].
2025年三季度公募基金股指期货持仓分析报告：量化金工|专题报告
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-11-05 09:20