棉花周报：多空交织，棉价或维持窄幅震荡-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the upside potential of cotton prices is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Domestic cotton prices continued a slight rebound supported by rising acquisition costs and positive expectations from Sino - US negotiations, but the rebound momentum slowed as positive factors were digested. ICE cotton futures prices rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects, despite the lack of significant improvement in the industrial fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - US Cotton Weekly Review: US cotton rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions were 69,367 contracts, a decrease of 751 from the previous week; non - commercial short net positions were 114,787 contracts, an increase of 2,020; non - commercial net positions were - 45,420 contracts, a decrease of 2,771 [9]. - Zhengzhou Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,520 to 13,675 yuan/ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,595 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan or 0.41%. As of October 31, the registered and forecasted cotton warrants totaled 3,858 contracts, equivalent to 162,000 tons [10]. - Cotton Textile Spot Weekly Data: Spot prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The seed cotton acquisition price showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the price in the current week at 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg, supporting cotton prices. The overall spot basis narrowed, and many cotton merchants lowered their spot sales basis [12][14]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market - Supply: The China Cotton Association predicts that the 2025/26 cotton output will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, with Xinjiang's output expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a 9.2% increase and accounting for 95.8% of the national total. New cotton listing is slower than in previous years. In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, with Australia and Brazil being the main sources [17][25]. - Demand: Demand is weaker than in previous years, with no obvious domestic demand improvement and a slight improvement in exports. Weaving mills' raw material procurement is mainly on a wait - and - see basis, with orders - based purchasing [27][33]. - Profit: This week, the processing profit of ginning mills was 396 - 445 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,022.1 to - 945.3 yuan/ton, a decline from the previous week [36]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 31, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 484,500 tons and 77,200 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [42]. 03 International Market - Global Cotton Supply and Demand: According to the latest USDA September forecast, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [44]. - US Cotton Export: Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have suspended disclosure [47]. - US Cotton Growth: No specific content provided.