贵金属策略报告-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report predicts that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, experience high - level volatility in the medium - term, and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Core Logic: In the short - term for hedging, the risk of the trade war has eased after the China - US talks; the US employment has weakened and inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has slowed down. In terms of the hedging attribute, the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have been announced. The US will cancel the so - called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history. In terms of the monetary attribute, the path of the Fed's interest rate cut has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of another interest rate cut in December in different forms. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled in October, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second interest rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. Fed Chairman Powell said that whether to further cut interest rates in December is "far from a foregone conclusion", and the data loss caused by the government shutdown may affect subsequent decisions. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December to remain around 70%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure at high levels. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index fluctuates downward, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Data: The latest closing price of the Comex gold main contract is $3941.30 per ounce, down $251.80 (-6.01%) from the previous day and down $26.80 (-0.68%) from the previous week. The London gold price is $3951.10 per ounce, down $74.15 (-1.84%) from the previous day and up $2.60 (0.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 912.26 yuan per gram, down 3.32 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day and up 1.38 yuan (0.15%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 915.68 yuan per gram, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.26 yuan (0.36%) from the previous week. There are also data on basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc. [2] Silver - Core Logic: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - Data: The latest closing price of the Comex silver main contract is $46.90 per ounce, down $4.08 (-7.99%) from the previous day and down $0.24 (-0.52%) from the previous week. The London silver price is $47.76 per ounce, down $1.02 (-2.08%) from the previous day and up $1.32 (2.84%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11276 yuan per kilogram, up 38 yuan (0.34%) from the previous day and down 62 yuan (-0.55%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 11242 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and down 109 yuan (-0.96%) from the previous week. There are also data on basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. [5] Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are 66371.78 billion US dollars, down 32.35 billion US dollars (-0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous value [7]. - Other Key Data: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.37, up 0.01 (0.42%) from the previous day and up 0.12 (5.33%) from the previous week; the US dollar index is 100.21, up 0.33 (0.34%) from the previous day and up 1.48 (1.50%) from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.38, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.04 (-9.76%) from the previous week; there are also data on inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, etc. [7][9][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from December 2025 to October 2027 is provided, such as the probability of the federal funds rate being in the range of 375 - 400 basis points at the December 10, 2025 meeting is 74.1%, and the probability of being in the range of 400 - 425 basis points is 25.9% [12].