下游刚需拿货，尿素厂内库存增加

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The futures and spot prices of urea have rebounded in resonance, but there is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals. Without substantial positive factors, it is expected to consolidate at a low level [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - Urea opened flat and moved lower intraday but ended up rising. The upstream factories' shipping atmosphere has improved, and prices have risen slightly. The ex - factory price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,500 to 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5]. - Xinjiang Zhongneng Wanyuan's 2 million - ton production capacity was ignited, and it is expected to produce products in the middle of the month. The daily output has exceeded 190,000 tons, and high - level daily production is expected before large - scale gas and production restrictions [1]. - The autumn fertilizer season for downstream users is basically over, and terminal fertilizer stocking is the main activity. After the futures have been rising for several days, the market's purchasing sentiment has improved. The operating load and inventory of compound fertilizer factories have both increased, and the operation will gradually pick up, but mostly with pre - orders. The finished product inventory will enter an accumulation trend [1]. - The inventory in urea factories has increased. On one hand, agricultural demand is gradually ending, and purchases have decreased. On the other hand, shipments are hindered due to environmental protection requirements [1]. [Futures and Spot Market Quotes] - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,625 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved lower, rose intraday, and finally closed at 1,633 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The trading volume was 272,255 lots (-16 lots). Among the top 20 long - short positions of the main contract, the long position decreased by 2,118 lots, and the short position increased by 1,059 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of +1,099 lots, Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of +310 lots; Guotai Junan had a net short position of -686 lots, and Zheshang Futures had a net short position of -880 lots [2]. - Spot: The shipping atmosphere of upstream urea factories has improved recently, and prices have risen slightly. The ex - factory price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,500 to 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5]. - Warehouse Receipts: On November 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,900, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. [Fundamental Tracking] - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was -63 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton) [7]. - Supply Data: On November 5, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.34% [8]. - Enterprise Inventory Data: As of November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. The pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.29 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.19% [12].