Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that plastics will likely experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. The increase in plastic production due to the restart of maintenance - related devices and new capacity, combined with the lackluster downstream demand and inventory at a neutral level, as well as the fluctuating cost of crude oil, contribute to this outlook. The absence of practical anti - involution policies also affects the market trend [1]. 3) Summary According to the Catalog 行情分析 - On November 5, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's HDPE 3 - line increased the plastic operating rate to about 89.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The crude oil price fluctuates slightly, and new plastic production capacity has been added. The downstream procurement willingness is insufficient, and there are no practical anti - involution policies. [1] 期现行情 - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract showed an increasing - position and volatile operation, closing at 6814 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.97%. The trading volume increased by 20,008 lots to 553,147 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8970 - 9780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7060 - 8090 yuan/ton [3]. 基本面跟踪 - Supply: On November 5, the restart of maintenance devices increased the plastic operating rate to about 89.5% [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending October 31, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 710,000 tons, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - Raw Material: Brent crude oil's 01 contract fluctuated around $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged at $730/ton, and that of Southeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged at $740/ton [4].
塑料日报：震荡下行-20251105
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-11-05 09:37