瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 24 - 30, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% week - on - week to 84.3%. Multiple sets of equipment in East, North, Northwest, South, and Northeast China restarted, leading to a significant increase in supply. The downstream alumina maintained a high - operating state, while the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing increased slightly. However, due to the obvious increase in supply and general downstream demand, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories accumulated significantly last week. This week, there are both new maintenance and restart equipment in North and Central China, with the overall capacity utilization rate expected to increase. The supply of downstream alumina is loose and the low - profit situation may continue, suppressing the industry's stocking demand. Non - aluminum downstream industries have rigid demand for procurement with little change. The high inventory of liquid caustic soda in factories increases the pressure on enterprises to sell at low prices. The continuation of high - operating, high - inventory, and weak - demand situations exerts pressure on prices. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2250 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract was 2303 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda futures contract was 138,392 lots, an increase of 10,328 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 14,339 lots, an increase of 25 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda futures contract was 451,353 lots, an increase of 197,250 lots; the closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2303 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2481 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 649 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 75.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 24 - 30, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% week - on - week to 84.3%. From October 25 - 31, the national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 85.86%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.03% to 89.64%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 1.01% to 68.32%. As of October 30, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.84% week - on - week to 442,600 tons. From October 24 - 30, the chlor - alkali profit rose to 626 yuan/ton [3].