Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-05 09:33Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - L2601 oscillated downward, closing at 6,814 yuan/ton. The impact of newly added and previously shut - down maintenance devices expanded, leading to a decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. The overall downstream PE operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate of agricultural film rising and that of packaging film falling. Production and social inventories decreased, with less inventory pressure. The cost of oil - based LLDPE increased and losses deepened, while the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased and profits rose slightly. With planned restarts of some devices, PE production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. In the short term, L2601 is expected to oscillate weakly, and the daily K - line should focus on the support around 6,770 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene decreased: the closing price of the main futures contract was 6,814 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 6,814 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 6,901 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 6,959 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. - Trading volume and open interest increased: trading volume was 290,462 lots, up 60,286 lots; open interest was 553,147 lots, up 20,008 lots. - The 1 - 5 spread was - 87, down 7. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 80,527 lots, down 3,112 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) decreased: in North China, it was 6,921.3 yuan/ton, down 30.43 yuan; in East China, it was 7,135.71 yuan/ton, down 9.52 yuan. The basis was 107.3, up 34.56 [2]. Upstream Situation - The prices of raw materials decreased: the FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.59 US dollars/barrel, down 0.75 US dollars; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 576.5 US dollars/ton, down 5.88 US dollars. The prices of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 80.86%, down 0.59% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of packaging film was 51.3%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of pipes was 32.17%, down 0.16%; the operating rate of agricultural film was 49.53%, up 2.42% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.91%, up 0.34%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.37%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 9.92%, down 0.05% [2]. Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, PE production decreased by 0.72% to 643,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.59% to 80.87%. The overall downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.4%, with the agricultural film operating rate up 2.4% and the packaging film operating rate down 1.3%. - As of October 29th, the inventory of PE production enterprises decreased by 19.16% to 416,000 tons; as of October 24th, the social inventory of PE decreased by 3.30% to 527,400 tons. - From October 25th to 31st, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 3.53% to 7,389 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 234.86 yuan/ton to - 360 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 1.12% to 6,845 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 5.57 yuan/ton to 197.86 yuan/ton [2].