瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market is expected to stabilize in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The supply will be further reduced due to the dry season, the demand from polysilicon is uncertain, while the demand from silicone and aluminum alloy is relatively stable. Cost provides support for prices, but high inventory restricts price increases [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9020 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the main contract position is 232,849 lots, down 9,304 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 42,010 lots, up 7,199 lots; the warehouse receipt of GZEE is 46,195 lots, up 372 lots; the closing price of the December contract is - 400 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spread between November and December contracts is - 400 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - ventilated 553 silicon is 9450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 430 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrode (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6409.29 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.95 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 21,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, down 5568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC is 68.56%, down 1.49%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, down 5568.37 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The IEA's report shows that about half of the new power - generation installed capacity in the Middle East from 2023 to 2035 will be photovoltaic power generation, and the new photovoltaic - generation installed capacity will increase 15 times compared with the previous total installed capacity. In the industrial silicon market, in Sichuan and Yunnan, the dry - season production cut is expanding as the cost rises. In Xinjiang, production is increasing due to stable and low - cost power supply [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - In the silicone segment, inventory is lower than the historical average, production profit is flat, and there is a certain rigid - demand support for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, inventory is as high as 282,600 tons, higher than the historical average. Rising silicon wafer prices are beneficial for polysilicon demand, but dry - season production cuts in polysilicon may have a negative impact on industrial silicon demand. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate is stable, and the demand for industrial silicon remains high, but the marginal impact on price is limited [2].