Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-05 09:33Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the investment rating of the hot-rolled coil industry in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the HC2601 contract declined weakly. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to increase slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.65%. Terminal demand increased and inventory decreased. Overall, as the macro - level positive factors faded and the decline in furnace materials weakened cost support, the hot-rolled coil market remained sluggish. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were moving downward. Operationally, the market is expected to be oscillating with a downward bias, and attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the position volume was 1,373,091 lots, down 23,039 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 77,490 lots, up 7,802 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, unchanged; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 130,301 tons, unchanged; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [3]. 2. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 57 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 374,400 tons, up 700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 82.65%, up 0.28 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [3]. 6. Industry News - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a daily - on - daily decrease of 9.8%; 19.18 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.744 million tons, a daily - on - daily decrease of 5.8%; and 21.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.995 million tons, a daily - on - daily increase of 0.9%. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States, suspending the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the United States for one year and retaining the 10% additional tariff rate [3]. 7. Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [3]