瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, the central bank announced a 700 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on November 5 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 46.6%. Inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks, but market sentiment has recently weakened and trading volume has shrunk. Overall, the support from the macro and cost sides has weakened, and the mainstream positions continue to increase short positions. Rebar is weakly declining. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving downward. The operation suggestion is to be bearish with a focus on risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,024 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the trading volume was 2,031,781 lots, up 65,237 lots - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was -137,448 lots, down 24,396 lots; the spread between RB1 - 5 contracts was -70 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan - The daily warehouse receipt of RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 140,134 tons, down 2,708 tons; the spread between HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,303 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan - The basis of the RB main contract was 196 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan; the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price) was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax-excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 374,400 tons, up 700 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points - The output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 46.60%, up 1.21 percentage points - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons - The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 15.41 million tons, up 660,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index was 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -0.50%, down 1 percentage point - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment was -13.90%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 1.10%, down 0.9 percentage point - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters - The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a 9.8% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.18 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.744 million tons, a 5.8% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; and 21.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.995 million tons, a 0.9% increase in daily output compared to the previous period - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on the 4th. This means that the current federal government "shutdown" that started on October 1st is about to break the record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019 and become the longest "shutdown" in U.S. history [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention The weekly output, in-plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]