Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-05 09:32Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Wednesday, the I2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroeconomically, the U.S. Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on the 4th, and the federal government's "shutdown" will set a record. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The domestic port inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, weakening the demand support. Coupled with the weak steel market squeezing furnace materials. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at a low level. The operation suggestion is to short on rebounds and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 776.00 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the position volume was 544,659 lots, down 3,095 lots [2]. - The price difference between the I 1 - 5 contracts was 22 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 22,121 lots, down 8,273 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of the I Dalian Commodity Exchange were 1,000.00 lots, unchanged [2]. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 103.65 US dollars/ton, down 1.40 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, down 4 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 770 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 64 yuan, down 6 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 104.60 US dollars/ton, down 1.25 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.23, up 0.03 [2]. - The estimated import cost was 853 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,213.80 million tons, down 174.50 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 3,314.10 million tons, up 1,229.80 million tons [2]. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,272.93 million tons, up 163.44 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,849.86 million tons, down 229.33 million tons [2]. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,633.00 million tons, up 1,111.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23.00 days, up 4 days [2]. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.35 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.97%, up 0.47% [2]. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 47.75 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the BDI index was 1,958.00, up 13.00 [2]. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.99 US dollars/ton, down 0.02 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.485 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.73%, down 3.00%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 88.59%, down 1.33% [2]. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 million tons, down 388 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.33%, down 0.05%; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.21%, down 0.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 16.53%, up 0.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 14.55%, down 0.93% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,213.8 million tons, a decrease of 174.5 million tons compared with the previous period. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,759.2 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 864.1 million tons, a decrease of 77.5 million tons compared with the previous period [2]. - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3,314.1 million tons, an increase of 1,229.8 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 3,218.4 million tons, an increase of 1,189.3 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,585.9 million tons, an increase of 490.0 million tons [2].