碳酸锂周报：碳酸锂市场冲高回落，供需双强格局下资金博弈加剧-20251105

Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium Market Soars and Then Declines, with Intensified Capital Gaming in the Context of Strong Supply and Demand - Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report from October 27 - 31, 2025" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that lithium carbonate will oscillate between 80,000 - 84,000 yuan per ton next week, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of warrant cancellations. The current market is in a high - level oscillation stage. The core contradiction lies in the game between the expectation of new capacity release and strong demand. The short - term pattern of strong supply and demand will continue, but capital sentiment fluctuations will intensify price oscillations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - Lithium Salt Price Changes: The weekly increase of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 5.29% to 83,600 yuan per ton, and the basis changed from negative to positive to 2,820 yuan per ton. Industrial - grade carbonate lithium also rose 5.39% to 82,150 yuan per ton, with a stable price difference of 1,450 yuan per ton between battery - grade and industrial - grade. The weekly increase of carbonate lithium futures was 5.05%, from 75,700 yuan to 79,520 yuan. The arrival price of battery - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.82% to 79,400 yuan, and the spot price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.77% to 77,950 yuan. The prices of lithium hydroxide remained unchanged [2][4] - Lithium Salt Premium Changes: The weekly premium changes of different raw materials and enterprises for lithium carbonate were significant. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials increased by 150 yuan, and the premium of Ganfeng Lithium Industry increased by 100 yuan [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - China's Carbonate Lithium Production: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained at 74.39%. Although new production lines were put into operation, the actual increase was limited. The production of different regions and raw material sources is also an important part of the supply side [2] - China's Lithium Hydroxide Production: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - Downstream Consumption: The production of energy - storage cells increased by 5% week - on - week to 52GWh, the weekly production of ternary materials reached 18,568 tons, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60%, showing strong demand [2] Import and Export - Lithium Ore Import: The shipping cost of lithium ore imports was stable with a slight increase. The shipping cost of the Nigerian route increased by 7.14% week - on - week. In September, the import volume decreased by 10% month - on - month, indicating tight overseas supply [2] - Lithium Ore Transportation and Cost: The shipping costs from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and other countries remained unchanged, while those from Nigeria decreased. For example, the bulk shipping cost from Nigeria decreased by 7.14% [27] - Carbonate Lithium and Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - Carbonate Lithium Social Inventory: The warrant inventory decreased by 3.76% week - on - week to 27,621 lots, and the available inventory of lithium ore increased by 9.09% to 12,000 tons, with limited overall inventory pressure [2] - Carbonate Lithium Warrants: The total number of carbonate lithium warrants decreased by 1,987 lots week - on - week, from 30,686 lots to 28,699 lots [40] Cost and Profit - Carbonate Lithium: The production profit of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased by 82.52% week - on - week to 9,339 yuan per ton, while the lithium mica route still had a loss of 7,681 yuan per ton, and cost differentiation intensified industry reshuffle [2] Lithium Battery Fundamentals Market - Cathode Materials: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - Cathode Materials Production: Not detailed in the provided content - Electrolyte Price and Production: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - Cathode Materials Consumption: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - Lithium Battery Materials and Batteries: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - Ternary Materials: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales: Not detailed in the provided content