PP日报：震荡下行-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as the increase in PP enterprise operating rate, the lower - than - expected demand during the peak season, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; however, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders compared to the previous week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 5th, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Beihai Refinery led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 23% [1][4] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently, it is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders met market expectations, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [1] - In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year new production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] - Although it is the peak season for downstream industries, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased week - on - week, the demand during the peak season was lower than expected, and there was a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which had limited impact on the market [1] - After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened periodically, and traders generally offered discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - There has been no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry, and anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,477 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,552 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,491 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.13%. The open interest increased by 16,153 lots to 644,601 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined, with drawstring reported at 6,330 - 6,610 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 5th, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Beihai Refinery led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending October 31st, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; however, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders compared to the previous week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the morning petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil contract 01 fluctuated around $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $15 per ton to $740 per ton week - on - week [4]