南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, the domestic soybean market prices rose significantly due to factors like partial production cuts in some regions and active acquisitions by middle - and downstream players. However, this led to cautious inventory building at the acquisition end, a sell - off due to price stagnation, and a subsequent price correction. The expected resumption of US soybean imports after Sino - US trade negotiations also dampened market sentiment and weakened the upward momentum of futures prices [4]. - On Tuesday, the soybean No.1 futures continued to decline. The main 01 contract dropped 37 yuan/ton to close at 4055 yuan, with slightly lower trading volume and open interest, and a significant increase in registered warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Prediction and Risk Strategies - Price Range Prediction: The predicted monthly price range for the soybean No.1 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.00% and a historical percentile of 37.4% [3]. - Risk Strategies - Inventory Management: For planting entities with high demand for selling newly - harvested soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling 30% of the soybean No.1 futures (A2601) when the price is above 4100 [3]. - Procurement Management: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is advisable to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider going long on A2603 and A2605 contracts after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Positive Factors: The new - season domestic soybeans are being purchased by the Hulunbuir warehouse of Sinograin at market prices, and the market is actively delivering. The production cut of high - protein soybeans supports market sentiment and acquisition behavior, and there are no auction arrangements this week [4]. - Negative Factors: After the progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, China may resume and expand imports of US agricultural products, starting with soybeans, which is negative for domestic low - and medium - protein soybeans. The short - term supply - demand relationship has changed due to increased selling pressure at the grass - roots level and cautious inventory - building by enterprises. The significant increase in registered warehouse receipts on Tuesday also adds hedging pressure [4][8]. 3.3 Price and Basis Information - Spot Prices and Main Basis: On November 4, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in different regions and their corresponding basis to the main contract are as follows: 3900 yuan in Harbin (- 135 basis), 3860 yuan in Nenjiang (- 216 basis), 3940 yuan in Jiamusi (- 136 basis), and 3970 yuan in Changchun (- 106 basis) [6]. - Futures Closing Prices: From November 3 to 4, 2025, the closing prices of various soybean No.1 futures contracts declined. For example, the 11 - contract dropped from 4076 yuan to 4044 yuan (- 0.79%), and the 01 - contract fell from 4076 yuan to 4055 yuan (- 0.52%) [9].