业绩之锚4：侧重更远期定价的三季报

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the "earnings surprise" strategy is not effective during the third quarter reports, as it has shown a failure risk similar to that of the mid-year reports since 2010 [3][25] - The third quarter reports provide limited incremental information, leading to a market focus on longer-term earnings growth expectations rather than immediate performance [4][51] - The proportion of companies exceeding earnings expectations in the third quarter of 2025 was 19.25%, a significant increase from the historical low of 12.27% in 2024, indicating a recovery in market sentiment towards future earnings [4][5] Group 2 - The report identifies that only a few sectors, such as non-bank financials, coal, banking, non-ferrous metals, and telecommunications, had a higher proportion of upward adjustments compared to downward adjustments in earnings expectations after the third quarter reports [5][26] - The report suggests constructing a stock portfolio based on "turnaround" and "high growth next year" strategies to capture excess returns from individual stocks in November and December [5][55] - The analysis indicates that the market tends to price in significant "turnaround" and high growth expectations for the following year after the third quarter reports, but this pricing tends to decline over time [51][52] Group 3 - The report highlights that different industries respond variably to earnings surprises in the third quarter, with non-bank financials, machinery, steel, agriculture, and construction materials showing significantly higher success rates compared to others [26][27] - The report discusses the phenomenon of "growth illusion" and non-linear pricing characteristics in the market, where companies with earnings surprises may not receive proportional price increases due to overly optimistic expectations [30][32] - The report concludes that while the "turnaround" strategy remains a potential avenue for excess returns, the third quarter's unique characteristics necessitate a more nuanced approach to identifying profitable opportunities [38][55]