Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly declining. The price center of the contract during the session moved slightly below the 14,850 yuan/ton line, and closed 0.74% lower at 14,850 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 95 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rebounding from oversold conditions, and slightly rising. The price reached a high of 2,150 yuan/ton and a low of 2,089 yuan/ton, and closed 0.94% higher at 2,141 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 95 yuan/ton. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of domestic methanol, it is expected that the 2601 contract may maintain a weak pattern in the future [6]. - On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly declining. The price reached a high of 465.6 yuan/barrel and a low of 459.0 yuan/barrel, and closed 0.32% lower at 463.7 yuan/barrel. With the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in South America, the premium of domestic and foreign crude oil futures has increased. Meanwhile, OPEC will suspend capacity expansion in the first quarter of next year, and the supply expectation has changed, boosting the confidence of oil market bulls [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,400 tons or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory was 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%, and the general trade inventory was 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.79 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.79 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 4.30 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.49 percentage points [9]. - In the week of October 31, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.4%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.90 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decrease of 3.20 percentage points [9]. - In October 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in October 2025 was 50.7%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [10]. - In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. This has been the seventh consecutive month of year - on - year positive growth since April this year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000, and it is certain that the annual sales will exceed one million, and there is even a possibility of reaching 1.1 million [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.88%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.67%, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and a slight increase of 1.78% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9681 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 24,600 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 95,400 tons, and a significant increase of 85,100 tons compared with 1.883 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.98%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.79%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 72.32%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.29%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 56.50%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 84.18%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.27 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 1.15% [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures contract's on - paper profit was 10 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week recovery of 164 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month rebound of 142 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1.2829 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 13,100 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, and a significant increase of 261,900 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory reached 360,400 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 40,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 76,500 tons compared with 436,900 tons in the same period last year [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 420, a slight week - on - week decrease of 6 and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 24, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.644 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 15,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 144,000 barrels per day, reaching a historical high [15]. - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) in the United States reached 416 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.858 million barrels and a significant decrease of 9.543 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the United States, reached 22.565 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.334 million barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 409.1 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 533,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 86.6%, a slight week - on - week decline of 2.0 percentage points, a significant month - on - month decrease of 4.8 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year decline of 2.5 percentage points [15]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts compared with the average of 122,063 contracts in August, a decline of 15.65%. Meanwhile, as of October 28, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 173,887 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 122,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 42,468 contracts compared with the average of 216,355 contracts in September, a decline of 19.63% [16]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,350 yuan/ton | - 300 yuan/ton | 14,850 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 500 yuan/ton | - 275 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,100 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | 2,141 yuan/ton | + 26 yuan/ton | - 41 yuan/ton | - 51 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 434.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 465.2 yuan/barrel | + 1.7 yuan/barrel | - 30.5 yuan/barrel | - 1.6 yuan/barrel | [18] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: includes charts of rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [19][21][23] - Methanol: includes charts of methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [32][34][36] - Crude Oil: includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [45][47][49]
偏空情绪压制，能化偏弱运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-05 10:08