OPPEIN(SH:603833) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-05 10:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][27] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q3 2025, with a total revenue of 13.21 billion yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.83 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year [1][4] - The company is facing significant pressure due to ongoing adjustments and transformation challenges in the real estate and home furnishing industries, compounded by the gradual reduction of national subsidies [1][4] - Despite the challenges, the company's strategic shift towards a comprehensive home furnishing model is showing initial success, with retail performance demonstrating resilience [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.81 billion yuan, down 21.8% year-on-year [1][2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 38.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] - The company’s sales expense ratio increased to 8.6%, and the net profit margin decreased to 16.4%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] Channel Performance - Revenue from the distribution and bulk business segments declined, while direct sales and overseas channels showed growth. For Q1-Q3 2025, revenue from distribution, direct sales, bulk, and overseas channels changed by -4.4%, +4.1%, -12.0%, and +20.5% respectively [2] - In Q3 2025, the revenue from these channels was -4.9%, +1.5%, -13.3%, and +6.7% respectively, indicating a strong performance in retail despite the overall revenue decline [2] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, projecting net profits of 2.35 billion yuan, 2.63 billion yuan, and 2.86 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% for 2025 [4][5] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 3.85 yuan, 4.32 yuan, and 4.69 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.5, 12.0, and 11.1 [4][5]