Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-05 10:17Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The precious metals market may continue to experience wide - range fluctuations. The tariff policy narrative has uncertainties, the ongoing US government shutdown and central bank gold - buying expectations provide bottom support for gold prices, but the strengthening of the US dollar and long - term yields pose potential suppression. The weakening of the short - term interest - rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar may resist the upward movement of gold prices. If the narrative about the end of the US government shutdown heats up, it may also suppress the upward expectation of gold prices. It is recommended to adopt an interval - band trading strategy. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract should focus on the range of 890 - 950 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract should focus on the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 912.26 yuan/gram, down 3.32 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 11,276 yuan/kilogram, up 38 yuan. The positions of the Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver main contracts decreased by 3,174 hands and 12,816 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver main contracts increased by 117 hands and 2,931 hands respectively. The warehouse receipts of gold remained unchanged at 87,816 kilograms, while those of silver decreased by 9,440 kilograms to 656,170 kilograms [2]. - Spot Market: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 907.49 yuan/gram, down 8.51 yuan; the silver spot price was 11,159 yuan/kilogram, down 184 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 4.77 yuan/gram, down 5.19 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 117 yuan/kilogram, down 222 yuan [2]. - Supply and Demand: Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.15 tons to 1,038.63 tons; silver ETF holdings decreased by 22.18 tons to 15,167.64 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC increased by 339 and 738 respectively. The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. - Options Market: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 36.03%, up 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 26.84%, down 0.12%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for gold was 25.03%, up 0.07%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option was 25.02%, down 0.81% [2]. b. Industry News - The US Congress Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the US federal government's "shutdown" has entered the 35th day, tying the longest record in US history. The two parties in Congress have been deadlocked, and the temporary appropriation bill proposed by the Republicans failed to pass in 13 votes in the Senate [2]. - There are signs that investor buying remains strong. In the third quarter, the holdings of gold exchange - traded funds (ETF) increased by about 222 tons, and the demand for gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 316 tons. Jewelry demand also exceeded expectations [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 29.9%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut is 55.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 19.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 24.8% [2]. c. Impact on the Market - The recent statements of Fed officials have shaken the expectation of a December interest - rate cut. The ISM manufacturing index in the US in October continued to decline, and tariff policies still suppress the manufacturing outlook. FOMC officials have different views on future interest - rate cuts. The weakening of the interest - rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar may resist the upward movement of gold prices. However, the ongoing US government shutdown and central bank gold - buying expectations provide bottom support for gold prices [2].