冠通期货研究报告：旺季支撑转弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown continues to affect market risk appetite, and the copper market has been weak recently. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the support during the peak season has weakened. There is no clear signal for copper prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend during the day. The US Senate failed to pass the government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the government shutdown may break the historical record. The copper ore resources are tight, and the accident at the Indonesian copper mine is expected to affect the global copper supply until next year. Although the copper concentrate inventory has increased this week, it is still significantly lower than the same period last year. The market expects the long - term contract price to be zero or negative. In October, 8 smelters were under maintenance, and 5 are expected to be under maintenance in November, leading to a downward trend in copper production. With the recent rise in copper prices, the downstream demand has been suppressed, and the downstream operating rates have slightly declined. The Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 30 yuan/ton, and in South China it is - 15 yuan/ton. On November 3, 2025, the LME official price was 10624 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 24 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of November 4, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.06 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.13 cents/pound [8]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 42,600 tons, an increase of 6816 tons from the previous period. As of November 3, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 100,100 tons, a decrease of 6500 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 1025 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 360,500 short tons, an increase of 2826 short tons from the previous period [11].