碳酸锂周报2025年10月27-31日：碳酸锂市场冲高回落，供需双强格局下资金博弈加剧-20251105

Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report from October 27 - 31, 2025" [1] - Author: Yang Jiangtao [1] - Industry: Carbonate Lithium and Lithium Battery Materials 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The carbonate lithium market is in a high - level shock stage. At the beginning of the week, it broke through the previous high driven by funds, and on Friday, it significantly corrected due to the expectation of warrant cancellation. The core contradiction lies in the game between the expectation of new capacity release and strong demand. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and demand continues, but the fluctuation of capital sentiment intensifies price volatility. It is expected that carbonate lithium will oscillate between 80,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton next week, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of warrant cancellation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot: The carbonate lithium futures price rose 5.05% from 75,700 yuan/ton last Friday to 79,520 yuan/ton this Friday. The carbonate lithium spot price (electric carbon) increased 4.82% from 75,750 yuan/ton to 79,400 yuan/ton, and the carbonate lithium spot price (industrial carbon) rose 4.77% from 74,400 yuan/ton to 77,950 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide spot remained unchanged [4]. - Carbonate Lithium Premium Changes: The premium of different raw materials and enterprises for carbonate lithium has changed, with the premium of most raw materials and enterprises increasing [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - Carbonate Lithium Production: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained at 74.39%. Although new production lines were put into operation, the actual increase was limited. The port inventory of lithium ore increased 6.06% week - on - week to 70,000 tons, and the import volume in September decreased 10% month - on - month, indicating a structural contradiction in the supply side [2]. - Hydroxide Lithium Production: Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.2 Demand - Downstream Consumption: The production of energy - storage cells increased 5% week - on - week to 52GWh, the weekly production of ternary materials reached 18,568 tons, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60%, showing strong demand [2]. 3.2.3 Import and Export - Lithium Ore Import: The import freight of lithium ore was stable with a slight increase. The freight on the Nigerian route increased 7.14% week - on - week, and the import cost support was enhanced. The import volume in September decreased 10% month - on - month, reflecting tight overseas supply [2]. - Lithium Ore Transportation Cost: The transportation cost of lithium ore from some African countries remained stable, while the cost from Nigeria decreased (bulk: - 7.14%, container: - 6.67%) [27]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Carbonate Lithium Social Inventory: The warrant inventory decreased 3.76% week - on - week to 27,621 lots, and the available inventory of lithium ore increased 9.09% to 12,000 tons, with limited overall inventory pressure [2]. - Carbonate Lithium Warrants: The total number of carbonate lithium warrants decreased 1,987 week - on - week from 30,686 to 28,699 [40]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - Carbonate Lithium: The production profit of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 82.52% week - on - week to 9,339 yuan/ton, while the lithium mica route still had a loss of 7,681 yuan/ton, and the cost differentiation intensified industry reshuffle [2]. 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamentals 3.3.1 Market - Cathode Materials: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.2 Supply - Cathode Materials Production: Not detailed in the provided content - Electrolyte: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.3 Demand - Cathode Materials Consumption: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.4 Import and Export - Lithium - Battery Materials: Not detailed in the provided content - Batteries: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.5 Cost and Profit - Ternary Materials: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.6 Lithium - Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.7 New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales: Not detailed in the provided content