供应压力不减，钢价震荡偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with the supply contraction less than the demand decline. Long - process steel mills have a decent profit rate and stable supply, while short - process electric furnace steel mills are suffering increasing losses and reduced supply. Affected by the autumn - winter environmental protection production restrictions, steel supply is expected to continue to shrink [4]. - In October, the peak season for steel demand did not live up to expectations. Real estate development investment continued to decline, and infrastructure investment growth also slowed down, leading to limited steel demand. The core contradiction on the demand side lies in the continuous contraction of the real estate industry chain. In November, steel demand enters the traditional off - season, and the demand for construction steel will significantly shrink [4]. - In the next month, the steel supply pressure remains high, and demand will gradually weaken. With recent policy benefits being implemented, the macro - sentiment is stabilizing. Fundamentally, the weak reality pattern is hard to change. Overall, steel supply and demand are both weak, inventory pressure remains, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference range for rebar is 2900 - 3150 yuan/ton [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In October, steel futures fluctuated, first falling and then rising, showing an overall weak trend. At the beginning of the month, steel prices were pressured by weak fundamentals. In the middle of the month, they rebounded due to improved macro - expectations. After the macro - benefits were realized, the focus returned to fundamentals. The overall steel market was in a low - level oscillation pattern due to the game between reality and expectations [9]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis Supply is Expected to Shrink - The newly revised "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" aims to optimize the industrial structure and promote green and low - carbon transformation. It strengthens capacity replacement ratio requirements, encourages low - carbon processes, and standardizes replacement procedures [16]. - In October, steel supply and demand were both weak, but the supply contraction was less than the demand decline. Long - process steel mills had stable supply, while short - process steel mills' supply continued to shrink. Affected by environmental protection production restrictions and losses, steel supply is expected to continue to contract [17]. High Steel Inventory Pressure - In October, steel inventories increased slightly, with a rapid increase after the National Day holiday and then a slow decline. The inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils is significantly higher than that on rebar. If demand does not improve substantially, inventory contradictions may intensify [19]. Weak Demand in the Peak Season - In October, the steel demand in the peak season was weak. The real estate industry continued to decline, infrastructure investment growth slowed down, and overseas steel exports decreased month - on - month. In November, steel demand will enter the off - season, and construction steel demand will shrink significantly [26]. Reduced Macro - impact - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in October and will end the balance - sheet reduction. Sino - US tariff relations eased. Domestically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [30]. - The real estate industry remained sluggish, and infrastructure investment growth continued to slow down. Manufacturing steel demand was structurally differentiated, with the automobile and home appliance industries showing resilience. Steel exports remained resilient but declined month - on - month [31][37]. 3. Market Outlook - The steel market will continue to face weak supply and demand in the future. Supply pressure remains high, and demand will gradually weaken. Policy benefits are being implemented, but the weak fundamental pattern is hard to change. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with the rebar reference range at 2900 - 3150 yuan/ton [40].