银河期货油脂日报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and it is recommended to wait and observe. But in the medium - term, the idea of buying on dips is maintained. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing price of soybean oil on the 2601 contract was 8138, up 30; palm oil was 8590, down 26; and rapeseed oil was 9407, down 36. The basis of each variety remained stable in different regions [2] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 188, up 18; palm oil was - 106, down 26; and rapeseed oil was 345, down 18 [2] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 01 - contract Y - P spread was - 452, up 56; OI - Y was 1269, down 66; OI - P was 817, down 10; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.65, down 0.04 [2] - Import Profits: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 326, and the FOB price of Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil was 1075, with a disk profit of - 1204 [2] - Weekly Commercial Inventories: As of the 44th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory was 121.6 million tons, down from last week; palm oil was 59.3 million tons, also down; and rapeseed oil was 51.4 million tons, down as well [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: From October 1 - 31, 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased in all regions, with the overall increase in Malaysia being 12.31% [4] - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of October 31, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased slightly, and the import profit inversion widened. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term [4] - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: As of October 31, 2025, the soybean oil inventory was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, but the inventory inflection point may have arrived. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [5] - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: As of October 31, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level in the same period of history but continued to decline marginally. The import profit inversion widened, and the basis was stable and strong. The de - stocking trend along the coast is expected to continue [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: In the short - term, wait and observe. In the medium - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of various oils, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025 [13][15]