粕类日报：关税影响体现，粕类偏强运行-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is relatively loose in supply and demand, but the US market shows strong performance due to increased exports. Brazilian soybean prices may face pressure in the medium - term. Domestic soybean meal is strong due to tariff adjustments, and rapeseed meal is also strong influenced by soybean meal and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continues to shrink. [4][3] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market continues to be strong, and the Brazilian price is falling with sufficient supply. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are both strong. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows, and the monthly spreads of both are strong. [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the international market, the US soybean has limited upside potential without a significant yield reduction. Brazil's soybean supply is abundant, and its price may face pressure. Argentina's soybean export and processing are increasing, but the export growth space may be limited. [4] - In the domestic market, the supply and demand of soybean meal are relatively loose, with increasing inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply is uncertain. [5] 3.3 Macroeconomic Impact - Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals, and the US soybean market has risen. However, the impact on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamentals. [6] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean has limited upside space without a large - scale yield decline. Brazilian soybean prices are under pressure. Domestic soybean meal is strong with price support, and rapeseed meal is also strong but has limited upside space. The monthly spreads of both are strong but have limited further upside potential. [7] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Short the 05 contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Sell wide straddles. [8][9]