Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-05 10:21Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand, and it is recommended to conduct short - long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosting demand, and it is recommended to conduct short - long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of slowing supply and increasing demand, and it is recommended to conduct oscillating trades with a light position [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,395 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,772 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 55 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of alumina was - 41 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 31,025 hands to 225,136 hands; those of alumina increased by 1,617 hands to 421,899 hands [2]. - LME aluminum cancelled warrants remained unchanged at 45,625 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 552,575 tons [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum decreased by 11,471 hands to 18,546 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.09 to 7.47 [2]. 2. Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 520 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 95 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium and discount was - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount was - 6.66 US dollars/ton, down 2.52 US dollars [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The national alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the national alumina utilization rate was 88.27%, up 1.53 percentage points [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments decreased by 17,195.97 tons to 155,414.40 tons; the export volume increased by 15.31 tons to 68.54 tons [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 57.70 million tons, up 1.60 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 31,034.96 tons to 246,797.10 tons; the export volume increased by 3365.58 tons to 28,969.92 tons [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum production was 590.00 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. 5. Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27; the automobile production was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2]. 6. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.06%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.96%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 11.03%, down 0.0199 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.5, down 0.0405 [2]. 7. Industry News - In October, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were estimated to be 1.61 million, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 7% [2]. - The US federal government "shutdown" entered the 35th day, and the Senate failed to pass the temporary appropriation bill again [2]. - The central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bond trading was 20 billion yuan, and a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation was carried out on November 5 [2]. - The Chinese President met with the Russian Prime Minister, emphasizing expanding mutual investment and cooperation in various fields [2]. 8. Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The alumina main contract showed an oscillating trend, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis [2]. - The supply of alumina was still high, but production might be reduced as the price approached the cost line; the demand was stable due to high - capacity and high - operation electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed red bars expanding below the 0 - axis; it was recommended to conduct short - long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. 9. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract first fell and then rose, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis [2]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly due to previous project production; the demand was boosted by the improvement of the domestic macro - environment and the development of new - energy industries [2]. - The option market sentiment was bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly; technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed green bars converging near the 0 - axis; it was recommended to conduct short - long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. 10. Cast Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The cast aluminum main contract was oscillating weakly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis [2]. - The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the cost of cast aluminum was supported; the demand was supported by the economic recovery and the sales strategies of the automotive and motorcycle industries [2]. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed green bars slightly converging near the 0 - axis; it was recommended to conduct oscillating trades with a light position [2].