龙芯中科（688047）：收入体量温和增长，Q4业绩值得期待

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][6][7] Core Views - The company has shown moderate revenue growth, with Q4 performance expected to be promising due to the recovery of traditional business sectors and the emergence of new growth areas such as server applications and IP licensing [6][7] - The company announced a restricted stock incentive plan aimed at achieving a 30% revenue growth target for 2025, reflecting confidence in future performance [6][7] - The company is expected to enter a new growth cycle driven by the recovery of traditional markets and the development of new business segments [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 351 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.94%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -394 million yuan [3][6] - The company’s revenue for Q3 alone was 107 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.53% [6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 694 million yuan, 1,060 million yuan, and 1,385 million yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 37.6%, 52.8%, and 30.6% [5][9] Profitability Metrics - The company is projected to have a net profit of -383 million yuan in 2025, turning positive with 49 million yuan in 2026 and 233 million yuan in 2027 [5][7] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 31.0% in 2024 to 51.8% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [5][9] Balance Sheet Overview - Total assets are projected to grow from 3,497 million yuan in 2024 to 4,969 million yuan in 2027, while total liabilities are expected to increase from 561 million yuan to 2,133 million yuan over the same period [8][9] - The company maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio, projected at 16.0% in 2024 and increasing to 42.9% by 2027 [9] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to remain negative in the coming years, with -645 million yuan in 2025 and -610 million yuan in 2026 [10] - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in cash flow as revenue increases and operational efficiency is enhanced [10]