沥青日报：震荡下行-20251105

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt market is in a state of oscillating downward. Supply is expected to decrease, downstream demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. Crude oil prices are volatile, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the expected domestic asphalt production is 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 16.9%, and a decrease of 27.4 million tons year - on - year, a decrease of 11.0%. The output will slightly decrease due to the intermittent production of some refineries [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather. The shipment volume in North China increased significantly, and the national shipment volume increased by 13.98% week - on - week to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. - Crude oil: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations. OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Crude oil prices oscillated [1]. - Price: The forward resources of refineries were concentratedly released. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price was weakly oscillating [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 1.55% to 3,166 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,153 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 3,195 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 3,433 to 203,527 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,160 yuan/ton, and the basis of asphalt contract 01 dropped to - 6 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the actual cumulative completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1% year - on - year, continuing to decline from 2.0% from January - August 2025 [4]. - Downstream operating rate: As of the week ending October 31, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the stock of social financing increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year under the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - Inventory: As of the week ending October 31, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week ending October 24, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].