利率债11月报：如何理解央行重启国债买卖？-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are differences in the Fed's interest - rate cuts, with political uncertainties rising in Europe and Japan and the dollar strengthening. The Fed may slow down the pace of interest - rate cuts from December to the first quarter of next year. Domestically, the bond market is in an overall volatile state. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the situation of government bond supply are key factors affecting the bond market. In November, bond trading should be based on a volatile and bullish mindset, paying attention to fundamental data and stock market changes [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Directory PART1: Overseas Fed Interest - Rate Cut Dispute, Domestic Bond Market Overall Volatile 1.1 Overseas - In October, the US government shutdown, lack of macro data, and resurgence of trade frictions led to low - level volatility of US bond yields. Political uncertainties in Europe and Japan increased, causing the dollar index to rebound, and the euro and yen to depreciate against the dollar. There are significant differences within the Fed regarding the December policy decision. It is expected that from December to the first quarter of next year, inflation transmission may strengthen, and the Fed may slow down the interest - rate cut pace [7][10] 1.2 Domestic - Fundamentals and Bond Market: High - frequency data shows that the fundamental data in October still needs improvement, and the capital market remains generally loose. The bond market declined in an overall volatile manner, mainly due to the Sino - US tariff game and the central bank's announcement to restart treasury bond trading [2][17] - Institutional Behavior - Leverage Ratio: The inter - bank leverage ratio fluctuated at a low level [19] - Allocation Disk: Large banks continued to buy short - term treasury bonds, while insurance companies reduced their allocation of ultra - long - term bonds [21][23] - Trading Disk: Rural commercial banks continued to reduce duration, while funds increased duration and added credit bonds [26] - Wealth Management: The scale and bond - allocation strength of wealth management products were better than seasonal trends, mainly increasing the allocation of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [34][35] PART2: How to Understand the Central Bank's Restart of Treasury Bond Trading? 2.1 Three Backgrounds for the Central Bank to Restart Treasury Bond Trading - It is an implementation of the requirements of the Fourth Plenary Session to ensure the annual stable - growth target. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has risen by about 30BP this year, and the current interest - rate level is within the range mentioned by regulators. As of the end of October, the combined scale of outright reverse repos and MLF is at a historically high level, so the central bank needs to inject long - term liquidity [38] 2.2 Market Pricing of the Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading in 2024 - In 2024, against the backdrop of a bull market, the central bank bought short - term bonds and sold long - term bonds. The market was mainly concerned about the impact of regulatory bond sales on the bull market, resulting in a deeper inversion of short - term and funding interest rates and upward fluctuations in long - term yields [41] 2.3 Current Situation of Large Banks - Since June this year, large banks have significantly increased their secondary - market purchases of treasury bonds, with net purchases of short - term treasury bonds within 3 years reaching about 1.3 trillion yuan. The scale of purchases of 3 - 5 - year treasury bonds by large banks expanded in August - September, totaling 163.3 billion yuan. The downward space for short - term yields may be less than last year [45] 2.4 Points to Note - In the medium term, treasury bond trading is a long - term liquidity injection tool with the function of adjusting the yield curve. The differences between the central bank's bond - buying and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are reflected in four aspects: liquidity improvement, monetary - policy space, impact on banks, and impact on the bond market. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the scale and maturity distribution of the central bank's bond - buying, changes in funding interest rates and inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, and whether there will be further overall loosening [48] PART3: Bond Market Strategy 3.1 Trading Strategy in November - In November, trading should be based on a volatile and bullish mindset, paying attention to fundamental data and stock market changes. After the official release of the new regulations on public - fund fees, the downward trend may be smoother. Bullish factors include the pending implementation of the central bank's bond - buying and the possibility of another interest - rate cut this year. Bearish factors include the expected high supply of government bonds from November to December and the uncertainty of the new regulations on public - fund fees [4][52] 3.2 Structural Opportunities - Further attention can be paid to the opportunities of the central bank's potential purchases of treasury bonds within 5 years, the spread - compression opportunities of ultra - long - term treasury bonds, and the opportunities of credit - bond investment with medium - short duration and credit - risk sinking, especially urban investment bonds and financial bonds [4][55]