国债期货日报-20251105

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term bond market is in a consolidation phase, but the medium - term outlook remains optimistic. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, continue to hold medium - term long positions, and those with empty positions should wait for a pullback to enter the market [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Review - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed lower, with most varieties ending in the red. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 6.55 billion, the repurchase was 70 billion, and the net injection was 20.78 billion [1]. b. Important Information - In October, 2.31 million new A - share accounts were opened, a 21% decrease from the previous month [2]. - The US Supreme Court will make a decision on Wednesday regarding Trump's tariffs, which depend on three justices appointed by Trump himself. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he would go to the Supreme Court and emphasized the importance of tariffs [2]. c. Market Analysis - After the market closed yesterday, the central bank announced that it had net - bought 20 billion of Treasury bonds in October and would conduct a 70 - billion repurchase operation today. The bond market opened higher in the morning, showing an optimistic reaction to the news. However, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher, putting some pressure on the bond market. The decline in the number of new A - share accounts in October indicates that as the profit - making effect weakens, the inflow of funds has slowed down, and the stock market is no longer the main factor affecting the bond market [3]. d. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 04 Price | 2025 - 11 - 03 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 11 - 04 Position | 2025 - 11 - 03 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.494 | 102.51 | - 0.016 | 83306 | 83653 | - 347 | | TF2512 | 106.015 | 106.045 | - 0.03 | 179279 | 179924 | - 645 | | T2512 | 108.635 | 108.655 | - 0.02 | 290431 | 288156 | 2275 | | TL2512 | 116.52 | 116.48 | 0.04 | 178880 | 179765 | - 885 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0397 | - 0.0487 | 0.009 | 19329 | 24640 | - 5311 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0523 | - 0.0616 | 0.0093 | 50509 | 52682 | - 2173 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0019 | - 0.0002 | 0.0021 | 66835 | 65902 | 933 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2246 | - 0.0061 | 0.2307 | 86971 | 98827 | - 11856 | [4]