银河期货苹果日报-20251105

Group 1: Report Overview - Title: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily [1] - Date: November 05, 2024 [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous trading day [2] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.16, up 0.07 from the previous trading day [2] Futures Prices - AP01: 8940, up 79 from yesterday's close [2] - AP05: 9178, up 66 from yesterday's close [2] - AP10: 8284, up 66 from yesterday's close [2] Price Differences - AP01 - AP05: -238, up 13 from the previous trading day [2] - AP05 - AP10: 894, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - AP10 - AP01: -656, up 13 from the previous trading day [2] Group 3: Market News - Cold Storage Inventory: As of September 25, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from the previous week [4] - Imports and Exports: In September 2025, fresh apple imports were 9,700 tons, a 17.85% decrease from the previous month and a 1.10% decrease year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imports were 108,100 tons, a 19.49% increase year - on - year. In September 2025, fresh apple exports were about 70,800 tons, a 3.50% increase from the previous month and a 6.32% decrease year - on - year [4] - Market Conditions: Last Friday, the mainstream apple market in the producing areas was stable. In Shandong, the high - end price of the price range increased slightly due to the gradual trading of striped goods. Over the weekend, some merchants postponed purchases due to the low cost - effectiveness of the goods, and the price of general goods in Shandong decreased slightly. The market arrivals were stable, and the mainstream price remained stable [4] - Profit: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.4 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per jin from the previous week [5] - Spot Prices in Specific Areas: In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream transaction price of apples was stable. In Qixia, Shandong, the price of high - quality apples was stable, while the price of general goods decreased slightly [6] Group 4: Trading Logic - Fundamental Situation: This year, apple production has decreased, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and the preservation difficulty has increased. The market expects the cold storage inventory data to be low, so the spot price is strong. Some preserved fruit is expected to occupy cold storage space, so the effective inventory may be even lower, and the apple fundamentals are strong [7] - Short - term Situation: In the short term, the apple market is likely to trade based on inventory expectations. There is a market expectation that the inventory may exceed expectations, and the previous apple price has risen too high, so there has been a significant short - term decline [7] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Stay on the sidelines and observe [8] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [15] - Options: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [15] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as AP contract main basis, AP05 - AP10, AP10 - AP05, apple arrival volume in specific markets, 6 kinds of fruit prices, national cold storage apple inventory, and national cold storage apple出库 volume [9][13][16][18][22]