银河期货白糖日报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international raw sugar market has a weak fundamental outlook with a downward trend due to high sugar production in Brazil, a lower support level for sugar from ethanol as Brazil cuts oil prices, and potentially higher - than - expected sugar exports from India [10]. - The domestic white sugar market has a weak fundamental situation as well, but considering factors such as sugar mills starting to crush and tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [11]. - Suggested trading strategies include range - bound operations for the domestic market, an arbitrage strategy of shorting foreign sugar and going long on Zhengzhou sugar, and taking a wait - and - see approach for options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,393 with a decline of 42 points (-0.77%), SR01 at 5,441 with a decline of 40 points (-0.73%), and SR05 at 5,393 with a decline of 38 points (-0.70%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [6]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of white sugar in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan decreased to varying degrees. The basis between spot and futures prices was positive in all regions [6]. - Monthly Spread: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 48 with a change of 2, the SR09 - SR5 spread was 0 with a change of - 4, and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 48 with a change of - 2 [6]. - Import Profit: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price was 3914, the quota - out price was 4968, and the spreads with Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market were 752, 852, and 473 respectively. For Thai imports, the quota - in price was 3979, the quota - out price was 5053, and the corresponding spreads were 667, 767, and 388 [6]. Second Part: Market Judgment - Important Information: India's 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 3435 million tons (excluding ethanol use) and 3095 million tons (net production after ethanol use), with potential exports of nearly 2 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is slightly higher than the previous estimate, while the ethanol production shows mixed changes [8]. - Logical Analysis: Internationally, the sugar market is bearish due to high production in Brazil and potential high exports from India. Domestically, although the fundamentals are weak, short - term price fluctuations are expected [10][11]. - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: Trade within a range for the domestic market [12]. - Arbitrage: Short foreign sugar and go long on Zhengzhou sugar [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The part includes multiple charts showing data such as monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, and various basis and spreads [14][15][16]