Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year but the increase may be less than expected; the demand side has average recent orders, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate, with relatively limited upward and downward space. Sino-US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [5] - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a range-bound pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger range-bound trend. Previous long positions should take profits [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - Futures Market: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 80, 65, and 65 respectively; the closing price of CY01 increased by 25, CY05 decreased by 19845, and CY09 increased by 19930. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had corresponding changes [2] - Spot Market: CCIndex3128B decreased by 34 yuan/ton, Cot A increased to 77.10 cents/pound, and prices of other varieties also had different changes [2] - Spread: Cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had corresponding changes [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in different regions [4] - On November 5, 2025, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton increased by 1.33% compared with the previous period, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4] - As of November 4, 2025, 1018 cotton processing enterprises had processed and inspected 9,218,299 bales of cotton, weighing 2.0819 million tons [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's production is abundant, the expected increase may be less than previous expectations. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Take profits on previous long positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved last week, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly. The actual transaction price of pure cotton yarn changed little, and the market was mainly small, urgent, and rigid - demand orders. The follow - up needs to pay attention to downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The spot market of all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, and the weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly based on immediate needs. Downstream customers mainly placed rigid - demand orders and were cautious about the weaving mills' sales information [9] Third Part: Options - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7% [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and the trading volume of both call and put options decreased [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [8][13] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices, cotton basis for different months, spread between cotton yarn and cotton, and spread between different cotton contracts [15][18][22][23]
棉花、棉纱日报-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-05 11:05