Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-05 11:16Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed Meal: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks with widespread shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. Recently, the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have rebounded from low levels, and the short - term trend has strengthened. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed oil market is expected to continue the de - stocking mode. Near - month imports of rapeseed are structurally tightened, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks with widespread shutdowns, which supports the price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a basic level. After a continuous decline, the decline of rapeseed oil futures prices has slowed down, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9407 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2537 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 639.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5126 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - Positions and Warehouse Receipts: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased by 1525 lots to 214,565 lots, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions decreased by 5155 lots to - 8535 lots. The position of the main rapeseed meal contract increased by 32,792 lots to 408,102 lots, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions increased by 22,004 lots to - 2963 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 702 to 6838, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2955 [2]. Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9770 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2530 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9887.5 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7969.31 yuan/ton, up 150.43 yuan [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: The oil - meal ratio was 3.78, down 0.03. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 327 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 33 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1360 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and Imports: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month was 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons [2]. - Profit and Operation: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 596 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 1 million tons, down 1 million tons. The weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 1.6%, down 1.33 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was - 0.4 million tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 3.8 million tons, up 0.71 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 47.8 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 26.05 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 2.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 20.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons [2]. - Delivery Volume: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 1.84 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 0.39 million tons, up 0.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of feed was 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 21.81%, down 1.99 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 21.81%, up 2.84 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.17%, down 0.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.17%, up 1.17 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On November 4th, ICE rapeseed futures declined. The US - China soybean trade agreement boosted the price of US soybean futures, which was beneficial to the domestic meal market. The meeting between the Canadian Prime Minister and the Chinese President did not achieve a breakthrough in rapeseed tariffs [2]. Key Points of Attention - The rapeseed opening rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region released by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of China - Canada trade relations [2]