Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The long - term shutdown of the US government has increased short - term concerns about market liquidity, which mainly has a short - term impact. The supply of copper mines remains tight, and the supply situation in non - US regions has been alleviated to some extent. The demand for refined copper has been affected by high prices, but the downstream procurement demand has increased after the price decline [2][5] - The supply and demand of alumina are still in a significant surplus. Although there are expectations of production cuts, actual cuts have not occurred, and the import window is open. New projects are progressing smoothly, putting pressure on prices [13] - The US government shutdown has affected market liquidity, but the supply - demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum is still tight. Overseas production cuts have intensified supply concerns, and domestic consumption shows resilience, so the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - The US government shutdown has a short - term impact on the market. The supply of casting aluminum alloy is tight, raw material costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise and hard to fall [29] - The domestic zinc smelter's winter storage scale has expanded, and the profit margin of smelters has been narrowed. The consumption peak season is over, but the opening of the export window will relieve the oversupply situation [36] - Some domestic lead - storage enterprises have reduced production, while the supply side is expected to increase. Considering the supply increase and the arrival of the consumption off - season, the lead price may decline [41] - The LME nickel inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the supply - demand is still loose. The nickel price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [46] - The terminal demand for stainless steel is not optimistic, and the supply is sufficient. The cost support is not strong, so the price trend is weak [49] - The Fed has differences on interest rate cuts, and the dollar index has reached a new high. The tin ore supply is still tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. The tin price is in a weak shock [57] - In November, the demand for industrial silicon has weakened, and the supply has been reduced. The price has limited downward and upward space, and it is more cost - effective to buy at low prices [61] - In November, the supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased, and the supply reduction is greater. The spot price has no upward momentum in the short term, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - In November, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have tightened, and the price may rebound after a short - term decline. It is advisable to arrange short positions after the rebound [74] Group 3: Summary by Industry Copper - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The spot price returned to the 85,000 yuan/ton level, and the downstream replenishment increased [1] - Important Information: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity. Glencore plans to shut down a smelter, and some mining companies have adjusted their production plans [2][3] - Logic Analysis: Macro factors and supply - demand situations affect the copper market. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the demand has been affected by high prices [5] Alumina - Market Review: The futures price of alumina 2601 decreased by 3 yuan to 2,772 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different changes [7] - Related Information: Some electrolytic aluminum plants purchased alumina, and some alumina enterprises had production adjustments due to environmental factors. New projects are in progress [8][12] - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand surplus and factors such as production cuts and new projects affect the price [13] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 decreased by 85 yuan to 21,395 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [17] - Related Information: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity, the LME planned to formulate rules, and some aluminum plants had production adjustments [17][18] - Trading Logic: The US government shutdown affected the price, but the supply - demand pattern is tight, and the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Choose the opportunity to go long on SHFE aluminum and short on LME aluminum; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [20][21][22] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2512 decreased by 120 to 20,795 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [24] - Related Information: The US - China tariff adjustment and economic data were released, and the US government shutdown affected market liquidity [24][27] - Trading Logic: The US government shutdown has a short - term impact. The supply is tight, costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise [29] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [30] Zinc - Market Review: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 decreased by 0.15% to 22,650 yuan/ton. The spot market had active trading among traders [32] - Related Information: Some mining companies' zinc production data changed [33][34][35] - Logic Analysis: The smelter's winter storage and profit situation, consumption season, and export window affect the market [36] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions; Arbitrage: Arrange to buy SHFE zinc and sell LME zinc; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [37] Lead - Market Review: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 increased by 0.17% to 17,475 yuan/ton. The spot market had different trading attitudes among holders and downstream enterprises [39] - Related Information: A lead - zinc mine obtained a production license [40] - Logic Analysis: The production situation of lead - storage enterprises and the supply - side situation affect the price [41] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [42][43] Nickel - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 290 to 120,030 yuan/ton. The spot premiums changed [45] - Important Information: The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the nickel price and production situation in Indonesia changed [46] - Logic Analysis: The LME nickel inventory and supply - demand situation affect the price, which is in a wide - range shock [46] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [48] Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 35 to 12,535 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [49] - Important Information: India relaxed the import restrictions on stainless steel [49] - Logic Analysis: The terminal demand and supply situation, as well as cost factors, affect the price trend [49] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Sell on rallies; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see [50][51] Tin - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 282,090 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The spot price decreased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment improved [53] - Related Information: The US government shutdown, and some semiconductor - related events occurred [54][56] - Logic Analysis: The Fed's attitude, tin ore supply, and demand situation affect the price, which is in a weak shock [57] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Weak shock; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [58][59] Industrial Silicon - Important Information: The furnace - starting situation in Yunnan changed, and the electricity price increased, affecting the production of industrial silicon [61] - Logic Analysis: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, with limited downward and upward space [61] - Strategy Suggestion: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [62][63][64] Polysilicon - Important Information: Hubei launched a new energy project price - settlement mechanism bidding [66] - Logic Analysis: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - Strategy Suggestion: Unilateral: Buy after the price correction; Arbitrage: Reverse spread on far - month contracts; Options: None [71] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 decreased by 360 to 79,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices decreased [72] - Important Information: Some lithium - related companies' production and project progress were reported [73] - Logic Analysis: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, which may rebound after a short - term decline [74] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Arrange short positions after the rebound; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [75]
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-05 11:11