事件点评：焦煤期货交割新规及近期市场走势点评

Group 1: Report on Coking Coal Delivery New Regulations - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced on the evening of November 4 the "Announcement on Public Solicitation of Opinions on Adjusting the Delivery Quality Standards for Coking Coal", with adjustments mainly in three aspects: adjusting the CSR range of standard products to ≥65%, adjusting the range and premium/discount of substitute products; lowering the difference between premium subsidies and penalties for sulfur content indicators; and modifying the expression and requirements of the total moisture indicator [1] - Calculations show that the adjustment of delivery quality indicators will increase the warehouse receipt cost of Meng 5 clean coal by about 110 yuan/ton, that of Shanxi medium-sulfur primary coking coal by about 80 yuan/ton, and that of Shanxi low-sulfur primary coking coal by about 130 yuan/ton. Additionally, total moisture testing may increase the quality inspection cost by about 3 - 5 yuan [2] - The revision of the indicators will reduce the cost - performance of Mongolian coal delivery and increase domestic coal delivery. Large domestic producers of low - impurity primary coking coal have more prominent advantages. Buyers can obtain higher - quality and more stable coking coal through the futures market. After the revision of delivery standards, the delivery products are closer to mainstream spot demand, and the hedging efficiency of downstream steel mills and coking plants will further improve. However, the current document is in the opinion - solicitation stage and will be implemented in new contracts after the rules are issued, so it will not have a substantial impact on spot contracts [4] Group 2: Analysis of Coking Coal Market Trends - From August to October, the black - industry chain followed the logic of steel mill profit compression. After late October, the scope of steel mill production cuts expanded, and the daily hot metal output decreased from a maximum of 2.4236 million tons to 2.3636 million tons, with further decline expected in the coming weeks. Despite this, coking coal prices remained strong, driven by supply contraction expectations and downstream inventory replenishment [6] - After late October, there were a series of news about coal supply contraction, including tightened coal production restrictions, the shutdown of a Mongolian coal - washing plant, and a phased decline in Mongolian coal customs clearance. Weekly data shows that coking coal supply remained tight even as hot metal output decreased [6] - Looking ahead, steel demand has peaked and is expected to decline, so steel mill production cuts will continue. If hot metal output drops further with unchanged coking coal supply, coking coal will turn to oversupply. However, coal supply is likely to contract due to stricter safety supervision in coal - producing areas from November to December. The high discount of the futures market to the spot has partially reflected the demand decline expectation, and the rebound of thermal coal prices also does not support a sharp drop in coking coal prices. The market may focus on macro - logic in December [8][9] - In summary, coking coal prices may have a phased adjustment in the near term, with support around 1200 yuan/ton. From late November to December, prices may rise again due to macro - logic, supply contraction, and high discount on the futures market [9]