如何看待美元流动性收紧

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Despite the recent Fed rate cut, the US dollar liquidity has tightened instead of loosening, leading to price fluctuations in various assets and significant declines in risk assets [1][2] - The current tightening of US dollar liquidity is mainly caused by the depletion of ONRRP and the accumulation of funds in the TGA account due to the US government shutdown [3] - Whether this liquidity crunch will persist depends on when the US government shutdown ends and the Fed's subsequent operations. If the two parties reach an agreement and the government re - opens, or the Fed injects liquidity, the market may return to normal [4] Summary by Related Content Liquidity Tightening Indicators - Volume Indicators: At the end of October, the New York Fed's repurchase volume approached $50 billion, and in early November, the daily average repurchase volume remained at a high level of nearly $15 billion, indicating a normal and continuous liquidity crunch [1][7] - Price Indicators: On October 31, the US secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) climbed to 4.22%. Although it dropped to 4.13% on November 4, it was still much higher than the Fed's 3.9% excess reserve rate, with a spread of 23bp, the highest since July 29, 2021 [1][10] Impact on Asset Prices - US Dollar: The US dollar index rose from 99.15 on October 29 to 100.21 on November 4 [2][14] - US Stocks: The S&P 500 index fell from 6891 points on October 29 to 6772 points on November 4, a cumulative decline of 1.7% [2][14] Causes of Liquidity Tightening - ONRRP Depletion: ONRRP has dropped to a historical low, with an average daily volume of $11.8 billion since October. As the "US dollar reservoir", its exhaustion means that each financing of the fiscal TGA account consumes bank reserves, intensifying the liquidity crunch [3][16] - US Government Shutdown: During the shutdown, the TGA account balance increased from $758 billion before the shutdown in September to nearly $1 trillion in October, the highest since May 2021, exacerbating the "pumping effect" on the financial market [3][16] Historical Cases of TGA Account Balance Increase - 2020: Due to the public health event, the TGA account balance increased from $0.38 trillion at the end of March to $1.79 trillion at the end of July, leading to a liquidity crunch. But the market liquidity expanded with the Fed's injection, and the stock market recovered after an initial slump [3][19] - 2022: After the US Congress approved raising the debt ceiling at the end of 2021, the increase in Treasury bond issuance in 2022 led to a decline in US stocks from the end of March and a strengthening of the US dollar, but the impact only lasted until May [3][19] - 2023: After the suspension of the debt ceiling in mid - 2023, the Treasury's large - scale bond issuance to rebuild the TGA cash buffer led to a decline in US stocks and a strengthening of the US dollar. The impact weakened after the TGA account balance started to decline in October [3][19] Future Outlook - The persistence of the current liquidity crunch depends on the end of the US government shutdown and the Fed's subsequent operations. If the government re - opens or the Fed injects liquidity, the market may return to the previous trend [4][23]