Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Hunan Province has a significant geographical position and obvious resource endowment advantages. In 2024, its economic aggregate was in the upper - middle level in the country, with a "tertiary - secondary - primary" economic development pattern, but the proportion of the tertiary industry was lower than the national average. The fixed - asset investment growth rate turned positive. The general public budget revenue was at a medium level, with a low fiscal self - sufficiency rate and high debt ratio [4][5]. - The province has implemented multiple measures to address implicit debt, such as debt replacement and platform company transformation. After the implementation of debt - resolution policies, the spread of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan has significantly narrowed, and the debt - resolution work in Xiangtan has achieved phased results [4][23]. - There are obvious disparities in the economic and fiscal strength among prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan. Changsha, the provincial capital, has far higher economic and fiscal levels than other regions. In 2024, the overall tax revenue contribution of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) was relatively high, but most of them saw a significant decline in government - funded revenue, and the contribution of superior subsidy revenue to comprehensive financial resources was high. The government debt balance of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased at the end of 2024, and the debt ratio rose [4]. - There are many bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan, mainly distributed in the Changzhutan and northern Hunan regions. In 2024, the bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) showed net repayment. Since 2025, the short - term solvency indicators of most bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have generally improved, but the overall short - term liquidity pressure remains high [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory I. Hunan's Economic and Fiscal Strength 1. Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Hunan - Hunan has a prominent geographical advantage, with a developed transportation system and rich resource endowment. In 2024, its economic aggregate was in the upper - middle level in the country, with a per - capita GDP in the middle level. The fixed - asset investment growth rate turned positive. With the implementation of national strategies, Hunan's economic strength is expected to further increase [5][7]. - The population of Hunan is large, but the urbanization rate is lower than the national average. In 2024, the GDP growth rate was 4.8%, lower than the national average, and the per - capita GDP was 81,200 yuan, ranking 14th in the country [7]. - Hunan presents a "tertiary - secondary - primary" economic development pattern, but the proportion of the tertiary industry is lower than the national average. The province is strengthening its agricultural base, promoting high - tech industries, and optimizing the industrial structure [9][11]. - Thanks to the rapid growth of industrial investment and the accelerated recovery of infrastructure investment, the fixed - asset investment growth rate in Hunan turned positive in 2024. Industrial investment increased by 9.5%, infrastructure investment increased by 5.9%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 13.0% [12]. - National strategies and policies support Hunan's development. Central government transfer payments and special funds also provide assistance to the province [14][17]. 2. Hunan's Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Hunan's general public budget revenue increased year - on - year, ranking in the middle in the country. The tax revenue contribution was acceptable, but the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was low. The government - funded revenue decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue contributed significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources. The government debt ratio and liability ratio ranked in the middle and the back respectively in the country [19][20]. 3. Hunan's Debt Resolution - Hunan has implemented multiple measures to address implicit debt, including debt replacement, platform company transformation, and the exploration of debt - resolution mechanisms. The spread of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises has significantly narrowed, and the debt - resolution work in Xiangtan has achieved phased results [23][27]. II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan 1. Economic Strength of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan - There are large disparities in the economic strength among prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan. Changsha, as the provincial capital, has obvious advantages. The province is divided into four regions with different industrial development layouts [29][34]. - In 2024, Changsha was the only city with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan, accounting for 28.68% of the provincial total. The GDP growth rates of most cities except some were over 5.00%. Changsha had the highest per - capita GDP, while Xiangxi had the lowest [37][38]. 2. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan - The fiscal strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan continues to show a differentiated pattern. Changsha has far higher comprehensive fiscal strength than other cities. The overall tax revenue contribution is relatively high, but most cities saw a significant decline in government - funded revenue in 2024. The superior subsidy revenue contributes significantly to the comprehensive financial resources of most cities [41][48]. - At the end of 2024, the government debt balance of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased, and the debt ratio rose. Xiangtan had the highest debt ratio, and Zhangjiajie, Zhuzhou, Changde, Loudi, and Chenzhou also had relatively high debt ratios [49][50]. III. Solvency of Urban Investment Enterprises in Hunan 1. Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - There are many bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan, mainly distributed in the Changzhutan and northern Hunan regions, with the majority of the main body levels being AA. Since 2024, the main body credit levels of 4 urban investment enterprises have been upgraded [53][55]. 2. Bond - issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the bond - issuing scale of urban investment enterprises in Hunan decreased year - on - year. The bond - issuing enterprises were concentrated in Changsha, Changde, and Zhuzhou, with the main body levels mainly being AA+. The bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) showed net repayment in 2024, and the net financing scale was still negative in the first half of 2025 [56][57]. 3. Solvency Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the growth rate of the total debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan decreased year - on - year and rebounded in the first half of 2025. Changsha accounted for the highest proportion of the total debt scale. Since 2025, the short - term solvency indicators of most bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have generally improved, but the overall short - term liquidity pressure remains high, and there is a large bond concentration payment pressure in 2026 [60][63]. 4. Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" in most prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan is between 200% and 700%. Xiangtan and Zhuzhou are relatively high in the province, followed by Changde, Changsha, and Yueyang, while Yongzhou and Xiangxi are relatively low [70].
地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：湖南篇
Lian He Zi Xin·2025-11-05 12:00