国投期货软商品日报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and policy factors. Overall, it presents a cautious attitude towards the short - term market of these commodities, with many recommendations to wait and see [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remaining stable. As of November 1st, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. Domestic spot trading was average, downstream pure cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly, and the market was dull. China may reduce additional tariffs on US cotton imports, and Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly, and there are rumors of syrup import control, which provides some support. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. It is expected that sugar prices will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price continued to correct. The price of high - quality apples was stable, while that of low - quality apples was weak. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is uncertainty in the initial cold - storage inventory, and the high price and poor quality of apples may lead to slow inventory removal. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] Rubber (20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - Today, RU&NR fluctuated weakly, and BR first declined and then rose. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China will enter the low - yield period. The domestic tire operating rate continued to rise slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is slowly recovering, the supply pressure is easing, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to rise, and the spot prices were stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream imported pulp inventory in China was 2.061 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In September, China imported 2.9525 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 272,500 tons. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Timber - The futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, and the domestic spot price was weak. Traders' import willingness decreased, and the domestic supply is expected to remain low. The export volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]