黑色金属日报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: Not clearly defined in the given star rating description [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend with current appropriate short - selling opportunities [1] - Iron ore: ★☆★, suggesting a certain bullish drive but with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish bias but with poor operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, a slightly bullish bias but poor operability [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆★, a certain bullish drive but poor operability [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, a certain bullish drive but poor operability [1] Core Views - The steel market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand expectations and low market sentiment. The iron ore market is expected to be in a high - level weak oscillation. The coke and coking coal markets are showing a bullish oscillation, while the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are likely to have narrow - range oscillations [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's apparent demand faces downward pressure in the off - season, with production at a relatively low level and inventory continuing to decline. The hot - rolled coil's demand has declined, production is still high, and the de - stocking trend has slowed. The iron - making water production has dropped from a high level, and the downstream's carrying capacity is insufficient. The overall domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The market is short - term pressured, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range and marginal changes in demand [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore is at a high level in the same period, and the domestic arrival volume has increased significantly to a new high this year, with port inventory showing a cumulative trend. The iron - making water production has continuously declined from a high level, and the steel mills' profitability has shrunk. After the macro - level positive news is implemented, the market shows a tendency to cash in on the positive, and the market is starting to trade the reality of a marginally looser iron ore supply. It is expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price oscillated strongly during the day. There is an expectation of a third price increase. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has hardly changed, with downstream customers making small - scale on - demand purchases and inventory slightly increasing. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water production supports the raw materials, but the steel mills have a strong desire to lower the raw material prices. The coke futures are at a premium, and attention should be paid to the safety production assessment information in the main coking coal production areas [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated strongly during the day. Although the price dropped rapidly due to the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting environmental protection standards, many coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production, so the price is unlikely to continue to decline. The coking coal production has slightly increased, the spot auction transactions have improved, and the terminal inventory has increased. The total coking coal inventory has slightly increased, and the production - end inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections in the main coal - producing areas. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water production supports the raw materials, but the steel mills have a strong desire to lower the raw material prices. The coking coal futures are at a discount to Mongolian coal, and attention should be paid to the safety production assessment information in the main coking coal production areas [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillated strongly during the day. The iron - making water production remains at a high level above 236. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly declined but remains at a high level, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The forward quotation of manganese ore has slightly increased, and the spot ore has been boosted by the trading floor. The manganese ore inventory has slightly decreased, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price is likely to oscillate in a narrow range [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated strongly during the day. The iron - making water production remains at a high level above 236. The export demand has risen to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The metal magnesium production has slightly increased, and the secondary demand has marginally increased. The overall demand is acceptable. The ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory is continuously decreasing. The price is likely to oscillate in a narrow range [8]