OPPEIN(SH:603833) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-05 12:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q3 2025, with a total revenue of 13.21 billion yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.83 billion yuan, down 9.8% [1] - The company is facing significant pressure due to ongoing adjustments and transformation challenges in the real estate and home furnishing industries, compounded by the gradual withdrawal of national subsidies [1] - Despite the challenges, the company's transition to a comprehensive home furnishing strategy is showing initial results, with retail performance demonstrating resilience [1][2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.81 billion yuan, down 21.8% [1] - The revenue from distribution, direct sales, bulk, and overseas channels for Q1-Q3 2025 showed a year-on-year change of -4.4%, +4.1%, -12.0%, and +20.5% respectively [2] - The decline in revenue from the bulk business significantly impacted overall revenue, while overseas business continued to grow steadily [2] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 38.8%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expense ratio increasing to 8.6% [3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 16.4%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased expense ratios and pressure on revenue [3] Financial Forecasts - The company has revised its profit forecasts downward, projecting net profits of 2.35 billion yuan, 2.63 billion yuan, and 2.86 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The expected diluted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 3.85 yuan, 4.32 yuan, and 4.69 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.5x, 12.0x, and 11.1x [4][5]