国投期货农产品日报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Soybean Meal (★★☆), Rapeseed Meal (★★☆) [1] - Slightly Bullish: Soybean Oil (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆), Corn (★☆☆) [1] - Neutral: Soybean (☆☆☆), Palm Oil (☆☆☆), Egg (☆☆☆) [1] - No Rating Information: Live Pig [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, and provides short - term investment strategies and key points to watch [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean - Soybean prices rebounded from the low after a few days of decline, and the spot purchase price was stable. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans narrowed. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback strength of domestic soybeans [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the adjustment of China's import soybean tariff policy, the soybean meal futures continued to rise by 1.49%. After the tax cut, the import tax rate of US soybeans was changed to 13%, but there was still no price advantage. The increase in US soybean prices would raise the cost of imported soybeans and soybean meal. Some USDA reports will resume in November. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans were consolidating after a rebound. Domestic soybean crushing was at a loss, and both oil and meal were strong, with meal slightly stronger than oil. The domestic soybean oil main contract was stronger than palm oil. Palm oil faced the risk of a short - term callback due to high inventory in Malaysia, higher - than - expected production in Indonesia, and weak export demand. Future attention should be paid to the supply from the origin and the performance of the soybean market [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The positions of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil main contracts increased, with the trend of strong meal and weak oil continuing. The supply of rapeseed meal was expected to be tight due to the low inventory of rapeseed in coastal oil mills. The market focused on Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian economic and trade relations. A short - term strategy of being bullish on rapeseed meal and bearish on rapeseed oil was maintained [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures were oscillating weakly. The supply of new corn in Northeast China was stable, and the logistics was tight. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. After the tax cut, the import tax rate of US corn was changed to 11% within the quota. The signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement needed to be continuously monitored [7] Live Pig - Live pig futures rebounded sharply from the low, with a reduction of 10,000 lots in positions. The spot price continued to fall. Due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the pressure of second - fattening, the pig price was expected to have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Egg - Egg futures increased their positions by 40,000 lots strongly, with multiple contracts hitting new highs. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The increase in vegetable prices provided support for egg prices. The in - production inventory was still at a high level, and the chicken - chick replenishment in October was low. The short - term trend of the futures was strong, and opportunities to short on highs in the fourth quarter could be waited for [9]