全景东盟双周报（2025年第11期）：东帝汶正式加入，东盟版图添新员-20251105

Group 1: Diplomatic Dynamics - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 agreement was officially signed on October 27, 2025, marking a new phase of institutional openness in the strategic partnership between China and ASEAN[5] - The agreement focuses on emerging areas such as digital economy, green economy, supply chain connectivity, competition, and support for small and medium enterprises[6] - The signing of the agreement is expected to enhance regional economic integration and provide a framework for deeper cooperation among ASEAN countries[9] Group 2: Economic Dynamics - The GDP growth forecast for the region has been adjusted upwards, with a projected growth rate of 5.2% for 2024, supported by improved consumption, industrial output, and exports[3] - East Timor's GDP for 2024 is estimated at $1.9 billion, making it the smallest economy in ASEAN and classified as one of the world's least developed countries[14] - The trade structure of East Timor shows a high dependency on industrial products and low-value exports, with 66.38% of its GDP coming from services[16] Group 3: Policy Dynamics - Coordinated fiscal, monetary, and trade policies are being implemented to address economic uncertainties in the region[3] - The integration of East Timor into ASEAN is seen as a significant milestone for regional cooperation and economic balance[22] Group 4: Risks and Opportunities - The entry of East Timor into ASEAN opens new opportunities for investment and infrastructure development, particularly in the construction sector, which attracted significant foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2023[18] - East Timor's oil reserves are substantial, with proven reserves of 187 million tons, and the country has established a petroleum fund to manage resource revenues sustainably[19]