如何理解美元指数再次“破百

Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - The dollar index recently rebounded above 100 after being weak for six months, starting from a low of 96.6 in mid-September[2][5] - The rebound was influenced by political uncertainty in France and the hawkish stance of the FOMC in October, marking a significant turning point for the dollar index[2][5] - The current rise in the dollar index is expected to be short-lived due to anticipated economic data deterioration in the U.S. and a return to rate cut expectations[2][7] Group 2: Economic Factors - The remaining upward pressure on the dollar is primarily driven by political chaos in non-U.S. developed economies, while downward pressure stems from economic weakness in the U.S.[2][17] - The U.S. government shutdown has created significant downward pressure on the economy, complicating the outlook for economic fundamentals[7][19] - The expectation of further rate cuts is being priced in, with a total of 75 basis points (bp) anticipated for the year, including already realized cuts[6] Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Increased policy uncertainty under Trump could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[19] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may exceed expectations, potentially leading to synchronized global easing and reduced long-term interest rate pressures[19] - The potential for manufacturing to return to the U.S. due to technological breakthroughs could significantly lower production costs and increase credit demand[19]